Labor insiders believe that a surprise April 12 federal election is firming with the Prime Minister considering firing the starting gun straight after the WA election.
The option would allow the Prime Minister to avoid a clash with the WA state election on March 8.
But it would see voters in WA head to the polls in back-to-back elections in the first half of 2025.
By calling the federal election in early March, the Prime Minister would also avoid the need to bring down the federal budget which is set down for March 25.
However, parliament would return on February 4 for a fortnight sitting.
Labor would remain hopeful – but not confident – of an interest rate cut before April 12.
The 2025 Australian federal election must be held on or before May 17, 2025.
Labor insiders believe that March to May is the likely window but that April 12 or May 3 or May 10 are the dates to watch for the federal election.
Why a March election would annoy WA voters
It’s the question keeping political insiders guessing: when will the Prime Minister call the federal election?
As Anthony Albanese hits the campaign trail this week he’s dropping some big clues on battleground states including Western Australia and Queensland.
But if you think the Prime Minister is poised to call the election next week that might be a tad premature.
So when will the Prime Minister call it?
The biggest reason for an election in April or May is the WA state election on March 8.
While in theory a federal election would trump a state election and the WA premier Roger Cook would have to move it there’s no chance of that happening.
WA is critical to the ALP’s hopes of re-election.
Rather than seriously pissing off WA voters by making them head to the polls twice in a month, most Labor insiders believe the federal election will be held on April 12 or May.
What about February 22?
Late January is the deadline to call a double dissolution election for February 22 – but there are plenty of reasons why that’s regarded as unlikely.
First of all there’s not a clear double dissolution trigger and secondly Labor is behind in the polls and would not likely improve its position.
Of course the Prime Minister could call a standard half-Senate election for February 22 but once again there’s a few reasons why that would be unexpected.
May 17 is the last possible date that the Prime Minister can call the federal election with the standard half-senate arrangements.
But that date seems somewhat unlikely too because it would make him look like he was hanging on by his fingernails.
Here’s the rundown on all the dates Anthony Albanese could call an election and why we can rule out some dates during the election countdown.
What’s wrong with a March election?
Traditionally, March has always been a big month for federal elections. Think of John Howard’s election victory on March 2, 1996. Paul Keating’s surprise win on March 13, 1993. But also the 1990 election and Bob Hawke’s first victory in 1983.
The window to call a March election is between January 27 and February 24.
The benefit of a March election is the Prime Minister and his Treasurer don’t have to hand down the March 25 budget as planned which is – or was – expected to include some nasty numbers.
Depending on when the election is called the Prime Minister wouldn’t have to return to parliament on February 4 as planned, although there’s reasons he may want to do that to put the pressure on Peter Dutton.
The downside of a March election includes that it gives the RBA less time to deliver a rate cut.
An April or May election gives the Albanese Government a fighting chance of a rate cut.
But the big reason not to call a March election is that it clashes with the WA state election and that narrows the Prime Minister’s options a lot.
So for now, the plan is to hit voters with an avalanche of taxpayer-funded ads between now and February as Anthony Albanese hits the campaign trail anyway.
But as the Prime Minister starts flying around the country some of his loyal lieutenants remain on holidays and that’s a big clue as to when the election won’t be called.
A big clue on why March isn’t a goer – everyone is on holidays and there’s no focus groups
There’s some key Labor insiders you would expect to be sitting at their desks with their pencils sharpened if an election was going to be called in February or even March.
Chief among them is the ALP secretary Paul Erickson who will run Labor’s campaign.
He’s on leave until mid January, not that anyone is really ever on holiday in an election year.
The Prime Minister’s chief of staff Tim Gartrell took a brief break but was back at his desk on Monday, January 6.
But there’s plenty of key Labor staffers still enjoying a quick break. That suggests everyone is trying to slot in a quick holiday before the endless slog of an election year.
If Labor was heading to a March election you would expect them to be running focus groups right now and they’re not yet.
The deadline to call a March 1 election is January 27.
But the biggest reason to avoid March remains the WA election.
April 12 election?
Australia doesn’t traditionally hold federal elections in April, what with Easter and school holidays.
But that could be set to change.
The April scenario is all about the looming March 8 WA state election, the state that basically saved the Prime Minister’s bacon in 2022.
Speculation over the election date flared again last year after WA Premier Roger Cook told a business breakfast in Perth that he was seeking legal advice on whether a WA election date change is possible should Mr Albanese choose to call an election at the same time.
Subjecting WA to a dual state and federal election in March sounds wild and potentially dangerous for the PM. That makes a date on either side of the WA election more likely.
Mind you, an April 12 federal election would need to be called straight after the WA election with the deadline to call an election for that date on March 10, two days after sandgropers head to the polls on March 8.
Since 1901, there’s only been two elections held in April, in 1910 and 1951 respectively.
Subjecting WA to a dual state and federal election in March sounds wild and potentially dangerous for the PM. That makes a date on either side of the WA election more likely.
There’s a few other April dates that are just messy. April 19 is Easter Saturday. That’s not going to happen.
April 26 is the day after Anzac Day. That seems pretty unlikely as well so strike those dates out of your calendar.
All the other dates and all the deadlines
The election window first opened in August 2024. That was the first possible date for an early election, if the writs had been issued on 1 July.
Of course that early election option never happened. So the possible dates have now narrowed to between March or May.
The election window remains open until mid-May 2025, with the last possible date for an election being May 17 or 24.
The last day for calling a double dissolution election – January 24
The first deadline that looms for the Prime Minister this month is January 24. That’s the last date that the Prime Minister can call a double dissolution election.
A double dissolution election is regarded as highly unlikely, but it’s a deadline of sorts nevertheless.
It occurs when both the Senate and the House of Representatives are shut down so a federal election can take place.
Traditionally, Australia has half-Senate elections which means that half the state senators and the four territory senators are elected.
A half-Senate election is usually held at the same time as elections for the House of Representatives, which must happen at least every three years.
This is because state senators are elected for 6 years while territory senators and members of the House of Representatives have 3-year terms. State senators are elected on a rotating basis, with half up for election every three years.
Given the current polls, its regarded as unlikely that Mr Albanese would call a double dissolution election.
Section 57 of the Constitution provides that both houses may be simultaneously dissolved should there be a legislative deadlock between them.
However, a double dissolution cannot be called within 6 months of the expiry date of parliament (currently Friday 25 July 2025) for the House of Representatives.
This means that the last possible date for the dissolution of both houses of the current parliament is Friday 24 January 2025.
If a double dissolution election was called the election date would be February 22
Should the writs be issued on the same day (24 January 2025), and the shortest times apply, polling would be on Saturday 22 February 2025.
Should the maximum times apply, the writs would have to be issued by 8 February 2025 and the latest possible polling date for a double dissolution election is Saturday 29 March 2025.
March election dates
The next deadline in the Prime Minister’s calendar is January 27. That’s the last date to call a March 1 election.
Then there’s February 3 which is the last date to call an election on March 8 but as we’ve previously discussed that’s the WA state election so rule that date out.
When does parliament return in February and March
Parliament then returns on February 4. That’s the first time politicians are set to return to Canberra in 2025.
In theory, parliament sits for a fortnight from February 4 and then through to February 13.
During that parliamentary sitting period in February falls the last possible dates to call an election for March 15 and March 22.
But again because of the March 8 WA state election those dates are tricky anyway.
If the Prime Minister waits that long he will need to stick to his plan of handing down a budget on March 25.
That is unless he calls an election in early March for April 12.
As March draws to a close on March 31 the last date to call an election on May 3 looms large.
April 7 is the last day to call an election on May 10. April 14 is the last date to call an election on May 17.
And that’s it, the Prime Minister has then run out of road. So for all of those reasons, while an election can be called at any time, keep your eyes on March for an April 12 election or late March or early April for an election in mid May.
𝐒𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞, 𝐥𝐢𝐤𝐞, 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐲 𝐭𝐮𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐚𝐯𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐥!
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