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Air travellers in Europe are likely to face higher ticket prices in the coming months, with industry leaders warning that rising costs — particularly jet fuel — make fare increases unavoidable.
The head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), Willie Walsh, said airlines will not be able to permanently absorb increasing operational costs driven by expensive fuel prices.
While some European carriers have recently lowered fares due to weaker travel demand, Walsh noted that such discounts are temporary and unsustainable in the long run.
Fuel Pressure Driving Industry Concerns
Speaking to the BBC, Walsh highlighted ongoing uncertainty in the aviation sector, including concerns over possible jet fuel shortages in the UK during the peak summer travel season. However, he emphasized that there is currently no reason for public alarm.
He explained that even if geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East were resolved quickly, their impact on global fuel markets could continue well into next year.
A UK government spokesperson confirmed that airlines are not currently experiencing fuel shortages and continue to maintain adequate supply levels.
Middle East Disruption Impacts Supply Chain
The ongoing tensions involving Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have contributed to increased jet fuel prices, raising concerns across Europe about long-term supply stability.
Europe — particularly the UK — relies heavily on fuel imports from the region and has been exploring alternative supply sources to reduce risk exposure.
The European Union recently stated that there is no regulatory barrier preventing the use of US-produced jet fuel, provided its integration is carefully managed. Meanwhile, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said that while short-term shortages are unlikely, longer-term risks cannot be fully ruled out.
Travel companies such as TUI have also expressed confidence that immediate fuel shortages are unlikely in the coming months.
Airlines Balancing Discounts and Rising Costs
Despite rising fuel expenses, some airlines have recently reduced fares within Europe to stimulate demand among cautious travellers. However, industry leaders warn this trend cannot last.
Walsh stressed that airlines have limited capacity to absorb higher operating costs, especially when fuel prices remain elevated.
“There may be short-term discounts to maintain passenger demand,” he noted, “but over time, increased fuel costs will inevitably be reflected in ticket prices.”
Summer Travel Demand Raises Pressure
Analysts also point to seasonal demand spikes, particularly during July and August, when flight and fuel requirements typically increase significantly.
Walsh warned that if alternative fuel supplies are not secured in time, the UK could face tight conditions during the peak holiday season. However, he ruled out widespread flight cancellations, saying the industry is working to avoid major disruption.
Industry and Government Response
A UK government spokesperson said fuel suppliers maintain strategic reserves to support resilience in the aviation sector. Authorities are also working closely with airlines to ensure stable operations and prevent last-minute cancellations.
Discussions are ongoing regarding measures to help airlines better plan flight schedules and manage supply risks, aiming to protect travellers and maintain service reliability.
