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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving a sharp increase in global airfares, with economy ticket prices rising by an average of nearly 25% compared to last year, according to new industry research.
A report by consultancy Teneo highlights how airspace restrictions linked to the war have forced airlines to take longer alternative routes. These diversions are increasing fuel consumption and operational costs, placing upward pressure on ticket prices.
Fuel costs and supply disruptions hit airlines
Airlines are also grappling with a surge in fuel prices, as instability in the region disrupts oil supplies. Jet fuel costs have climbed dramatically in recent weeks, jumping from roughly $85–$90 per barrel to as high as $150–$200.
Since fuel can account for up to 25% of an airline’s total operating expenses, the spike has significantly impacted pricing strategies across the industry.
Reduced capacity on key routes
The report also points to reduced flight capacity, particularly on long-haul routes traditionally dominated by Gulf-based carriers. Ongoing disruptions have limited their operations, leaving fewer available seats despite efforts by other airlines to fill the gap.
As a result, passengers are facing higher fares, especially on routes connecting Europe and East Asia. For example, ticket prices for flights between London and Melbourne have surged by over 70%, while fares between Hong Kong and London have seen similar increases.
Diplomatic uncertainty adds to pressure
The aviation sector is also being affected by geopolitical uncertainty. US Vice President JD Vance is reportedly planning a visit to Pakistan for peace negotiations, though Iran has yet to confirm its participation.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has extended the ceasefire with Iran, stating there is limited time to reach a lasting agreement but expressing optimism about the potential for a deal.
Airlines seek government support
Airlines in the United Kingdom have warned that prolonged conflict could lead to further fare hikes and potential flight reductions. Industry representatives are urging the government to introduce measures to ease the burden on carriers.
Requests include temporary reductions in passenger taxes, adjustments to emissions trading requirements, and greater flexibility in handling delays and cancellations caused by fuel-related disruptions.
The proposals were outlined in a confidential briefing by Airlines UK, which represents major carriers such as easyJet, Ryanair, British Airways, and Virgin Atlantic.
Calls for contingency planning
Airlines have also suggested easing restrictions on night flights and airport slot usage to help maintain operations during the crisis. Additional proposals include prioritising jet fuel production at refineries and allowing the temporary use of alternative aviation fuel types.
Despite the concerns, the UK government has said there is currently no shortage of jet fuel. Authorities confirmed they are working closely with airlines and suppliers to ensure stability and minimise disruption for passengers.
Officials emphasised that their primary focus remains on reducing tensions in the region and reopening critical routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which is vital for global energy supplies.
