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U.S. drivers saw average gasoline prices surpass $3 per gallon on Monday, a level not reached since November, as escalating tensions in the Middle East drove concerns over fuel supply, analysts reported. The rising costs are likely to test public opinion on President Donald Trump’s military actions in Iran.
Tehran’s counterstrikes following U.S. and Israeli attacks have disrupted oil production in nearby nations and affected shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global trade route. This has pushed crude oil prices higher, with Brent crude climbing more than 5% to approach $77 per barrel, fueling a parallel increase in gas prices.
Rising fuel costs pose a political challenge for Trump and other Republicans ahead of the midterm elections in November, particularly as many Americans already face financial pressure from higher everyday expenses. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that nearly 50% of respondents said they would be less supportive of U.S. action in Iran if domestic gasoline prices continue to climb.
“Gasoline prices have an immediate psychological impact on consumers,” noted Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial. “It’s the inflation metric people notice most often.”
Industry analysts estimate that every $10 increase in crude oil adds about 25 cents per gallon at the pump. Supply or refinery disruptions could further amplify these price jumps, Malek added.
According to OPIS live data, average U.S. gasoline prices topped $3 per gallon on Monday and could reach $3.25 later this week amid the ongoing crisis, according to Tom Kloza, senior adviser to Gulf Oil.
Even before the Iranian attacks, GasBuddy data showed gasoline prices had been rising for four consecutive weeks as refiners switched to costlier summer-grade fuels required by environmental regulations. The geopolitical tension is expected to intensify this trend.
“Gasoline prices are likely to face additional upward pressure in the coming week as seasonal factors combine with ongoing global uncertainties,” said GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan.
