Long before the division was won, the playoff losing streak vanished and Royce Lewis blasted so many grand slams, the Minnesota Twins found themselves in a difficult position.
Almost one year ago, Carlos Correa agreed to a 13-year, $350-million deal with the San Francisco Giants.
Not only did the 2022 Twins go from tied for first place on Labor Day to finishing 14 games behind the Cleveland Guardians, but the team suffered its second straight losing season. Few outside the organization knew what direction the club would take after being heavily outbid for Correa, a foundational player they hoped to build around.
“It was super late,” Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said. “Carlos called me to let me know that it was going in that direction. It was a semi-emotional call on both sides even though he had only been here for a year. … I was happy for him personally, his family, but ultimately disappointed for us.”
Dejected as they were to lose Correa to San Francisco, the Twins expected they might be outbid and already created a series of contingency plans. They’d simply use the money earmarked for the superstar shortstop to enhance the roster in other ways.
Though the rest of the baseball world wondered whether the Twins would try to compete again in 2023, internally there were few questions.
The Twins were impressed with the development of a group of young prospects they believed were ready to contribute in the majors. Trade talks also were underway to solve another significant need — frontline starting pitching.
Even if Correa was gone, the Twins suspected there was a path to compete in a watered-down American League Central.
Some 365 days later, the optimism that guided the Twins was proven correct and has them in a much better position ahead of the 2024 season.
Not everything is rosy. The Twins still need pitching, payroll is being shed at a moment where adding makes more sense, and the team still doesn’t have a broadcast rights deal with the season only 3 1/2 months away.
But with strong player development, a playoff series victory, a controversial trade involving the team’s most popular player and the return of Correa after an additional 28 days in free-agency limbo, the Twins are the odds-on favorite to win the division for the fourth time in six seasons.
Carlos Correa’s offseason:
Oct. 13: Correa opts out of Twins contract
Dec. 13: Giants sign 13-year, $350M deal
Dec. 21: Giants postpone deal with concerns over physical; Mets sign 12-year, $315M deal
Dec. 24: Mets concerned with physical
Jan. 10: Twins sign 6-year, $200M deal— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) January 10, 2023
“We never changed our mindset,” Falvey said. “Had San Francisco worked out for (Correa), we would have also found other ways to try and improve this team. And I think that because of the vision we had at that moment in time … we were optimistic.”
Sometimes the vision can be difficult to see.
Emotions ran high on Jan. 20 when, nine days after the Twins stunned everyone by agreeing to a six-year, $200 million deal with Correa, the club made another jarring move, trading defending AL batting champion Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins for Pablo López.
Even though the deal brought in a talented young pitcher, something Twins fans clamored for years, some wondered why a team that struggled to hit late in 2022 would trade away its best hitter and one of its most popular players. Despite López’s early success and the contract extension he signed in April, it’s a question Twins fans repeatedly asked through the early part of this summer, especially as Arraez flirted with a .400 batting average into late June.
How upset were Twins fans about the trade?
Earlier this week, Baseball Reference produced a map of its most searched players by state. Two-way star Shohei Ohtani’s visage largely dominated the map. States such as Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin featured the local team’s most popular current players like Corbin Carroll, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Christian Yelich, respectively. Only two states, Minnesota and North Dakota, featured a player no longer associated with the local nine: Arráez.
”When you make that move, it’s a risk, right?” Falvey said. “No one knows who Pablo López is. We have a vision for what he could be. Now we’re a year later and we have a much better, complete picture of what we hoped Pablo would be, what he’s turned into and what he is. It’s a little easier to talk about now. At that time, that could go awry. You could be wrong about all of the bets that you are making there.”
Despite the uncertainty, López is one of many successful wagers the Twins placed in the past year. López lost 25 pounds last offseason, added a sweeper after learning it from the Twins in an early bullpen session and spent August, September and October thoroughly answering questions about his previous late-season performance issues.
Pablo López emerged as a top starter for the Twins in 2023. (Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
López’s rise from good pitcher to frontline starter made the Twins confident enough to allow free agents Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda to leave via free agency this winter. With López, Chris Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland on the roster, and at least one more starter expected to come via trade or free agency, the Twins believe they’re already in position to win the division.
October also provided ample evidence that the back of the team’s bullpen is capable of handling big moments. After struggling at times during the summer, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax and a finally healthy Brock Stewart dominated the postseason, combining for 15 strikeouts with only two earned runs allowed in 11 2/3 postseason innings.
Though there are still several holes to fill, the foundation of the team’s pitching staff is rock solid and showing no cracks despite spectacular misses on the August 2022 trades for Tyler Mahle and Jorge López, pitchers the Twins quickly moved on from this past season.
Another reason for the team’s confidence stems from a position player side loaded with young talent. Whereas a year earlier Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner were relatively unproven, the Twins think they’ve seen enough for the trio to become mainstays.
From Lewis shaking off two consecutive knee surgeries and repeatedly hitting in the clutch, to Julien’s offensive upside paired with his developing defense, and Wallner’s power making every park look small, the Twins believe they’ve created a strong foundation full of young talent with more players still in the pipeline. And similar to last year’s group, the team believes infielder Brooks Lee and outfielders Emmanuel Rodriguez and Austin Martin, among others, are on the verge of making an impact in the big leagues, with 2023 first-rounder Walker Jenkins only a few years away.
Another key is the development of Ryan Jeffers, who improved from a catcher the Twins viewed as a backup last offseason to one they trusted to start all six playoff games.
And then there’s Correa and 2022 All-Star Byron Buxton, star players who produced less than 2 Wins Above Replacement combined last season. Expected to carry the team, Buxton and Correa were saddled with injuries that affected them throughout the season. Buxton’s surgically repaired knee prevented him from setting foot in the outfield all season and kept him off the field for the season’s final two months.
Off to a slow start already, Correa’s offensive production dipped to career lows as he battled plantar fasciitis from mid-May through the end of the regular season. Correa, who returned to the team on Jan. 11 after a four-week stretch in which he blew physicals with San Francisco and the New York Mets, still managed to impact the team by playing through an injury he said would have sidelined him if the team was out of contention.
“There was a mindset from the moment that he signed that was really important for our team, ‘Hey, we’re here to compete,’” Falvey said. “‘We’re here to go.’”
The return of a healthy Byron Buxton would be a huge boon for the Twins. (David Berding / Getty Images)
The Twins are hopeful a healthy Correa can return to career offensive norms in 2024, confident in the way he performed in the postseason after finally going on the injured list in late September. There’s similar optimism Buxton will hit better next season, too, after undergoing another knee surgery. Though there are no guarantees, the Twins were pleased with Buxton’s first major post-op check-in earlier this month.
Beyond their stars’ health, there are plenty of other questions to be answered.
The Twins have yet to add a meaningful new player to the roster. Payroll could be trimmed by as much as $30 million from last season’s all-time franchise high of $155 million. Gray and Maeda’s innings must be replaced. Nobody knows with certainty if Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco or Kyle Farmer will be on the roster come Opening Day (expect two to be traded). And where this team’s games will be broadcast is yet to be determined.
But with the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers still building up, the Chicago White Sox tearing down and the Cleveland Guardians cutting payroll, the Twins believe once again there’s enough separation for the division to be theirs. Unlike a year ago, it’s much easier to see from the outside.
“Candidly, we all were (devastated) at the end of September (2022),” Falvey said. “We got a little healthier (in 2023). We had more of our core team playing through August and September, and it gave us a chance to separate ourselves in the division and ultimately put ourselves in a position to win in the playoffs. … That’s a good, good feeling in the moment. You always want to try and get better. You know you can’t sit back and wait. But our view is we have good leaders, we have good veteran guys that are in that room led by Carlos, Byron and Pablo, and others that are here for a while, guys that I think are setting the standard and young players who are stepping into that and really not even in my opinion, haven’t quite reached their primes. That’s a good place to be.”
(Top photo of Correa: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
