Vikings-Packers preview, predictions: Can Minnesota stay alive in the playoff hunt?

Energy has waned. A roller-coaster season has taken a toll. What better, then, to rejuvenate this Minnesota Vikings team than a Sunday night New Year’s Eve border battle with playoff hopes on the line?

It’s a total unknown in rookie quarterback Jaren Hall facing off against well-known defensive coordinator Joe Barry. It’s an on-fire Green Bay Packers offense against a cooled Vikings defense.

The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview.

What I’m watching

Lewis: The Vikings’ run game. They’re starting a rookie quarterback in a rivalry game without starting tight end T.J. Hockenson. They’re going to need to move the ball on the ground. Offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said this week, “It’s been tough that we haven’t been more productive more consistently (at running the football).” The team prioritized rushing efficiency all offseason. Staffers touted the signing of tight end Josh Oliver as a sign of progress. Through 16 weeks, however, Minnesota’s rushing success rate (38.7 percent) exactly matches last year’s. The absences of players like Justin Jefferson and Kirk Cousins have factored heavily into the lack of production, but if there were ever a time for the Vikings to find their footing, Sunday night would be it.

Krawczynski: Alec left me a belated Christmas gift by taking the running game. Of course I’m watching Jaren Hall! He looked pretty good in the early going against Atlanta before he went down with the injury. What will happen if he stays healthy the whole game? Playing on New Year’s Eve against the team’s biggest rival with the playoffs at stake? We’ll get to see how the rookie carries himself in a pressure cooker of a game. After watching Nick Mullens turn the ball over so often, this is a welcome departure. If he doesn’t play well, OK. At least the Vikings are trying something different.

GO DEEPER

Vikings starting Hall vs. Packers, bench Mullens

Biggest concern

Lewis: Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur’s progression. Almost two months ago, the Vikings held Love to 24-of-41 passing for 229 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Love was sacked four times. Since then, Love has ranked sixth in the league in passing yards, third in passing touchdowns and second in EPA per dropback. LaFleur, the Packers’ play caller, has limited the stress on Love with timely runs and screens, while play-action passes have kept Love in rhythm. Even without Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks, two key receivers who have not practiced this week, this offense looks more dangerous than it was the first time around. The Vikings defense, meanwhile, has been overmatched the last two weeks against the skill groupings of the Bengals and Lions. Green Bay cannot match the weapons of Minnesota’s two previous opponents, but running back Aaron Jones remains formidable.

Krawczynski: That Packers fans will be more prepared for this moment than those in purple. It’s gonna be a loooong day, folks. The NYE festivities will be flowing. Packers fans might have more stamina to come into U.S. Bank Stadium and make their voices heard. Will the purple faithful be able to maintain their wits about them as the holiday spirits course through their veins? Or will they lose steam by the second half of this night game? (I’m kidding, Packers fans. Your tolerance is a badge of honor.)

Ready to ring in the New Year Sunday night at @usbankstadium 🎊 pic.twitter.com/AkQq0a6qCv

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 29, 2023

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Jaire Alexander vers … never mind. Alexander, Green Bay’s cocksure corner, was suspended for this game for joining Sunday’s coin toss unprompted (and nearly botching the coin-toss call). Watching him try to cover Justin Jefferson, especially given Jefferson’s performance last season in Week 17 against the Packers, would have been a blast. In his absence, let’s go with the much-maligned Barry against Hall. If the Green Bay defense cannot halt the rookie, Barry could be seeking another employer on New Year’s Day.

Krawczynski: Kevin O’Connell versus himself. How is the coach going to play this? If Hall struggles early, will O’Connell pull the plug on the youngster and go back to Mullens, who has experience coming off the bench and sparking offenses? Or will he stay with Hall the whole way through, both because he presumably believes Hall gives the team the best chance to win and he wants to get a good evaluation of his young quarterback? It’s not easy to bench a quarterback in the middle of the game. How O’Connell navigates what has been a shaky QB situation since Cousins went down could go a long way toward determining the outcome.

GO DEEPER

For Vikings, tanking for a better draft pick is a more difficult proposition than it seems

Most interesting overall storyline

Lewis: What is Jaren Hall? Is he a viable candidate for the Vikings’ future at quarterback? Or is he a career backup? Is he accurate? How much arm strength does he have? Can he stay healthy at his size? How poised will he look in an important game? Sure, the Vikings still have a shot at the playoffs. And yes, losing would mean a higher draft pick. But that would have warranted conversation no matter the QB decision. Evaluating Hall’s potential — and the way the Vikings use him — stands as the most interesting element of this game.

Krawczynski: I just love the game itself. Two bitter rivals still clinging to playoff hopes, each with the chance to essentially eliminate the other with a win. The season has not gone according to either team’s plan. Both entered expecting to contend for the division crown. But in the absence of that top goal, the next best thing for both would be to drive a stake through their neighbor’s heart. It should make for a compelling game. Both are short-handed, but both will throw everything they have at each other.

Schematic matchup to keep in mind

The Packers rank as one of the worst run-defending teams in the NFL. Teams are averaging 4.5 yards a carry against them. For this reason, Green Bay is playing with one-high safety more than all but four teams in the NFL. Teams typically play with two-high safeties to stop the Vikings and take away Jefferson. The Packers used this strategy last season in Week 17. So which will it be this time around: the approach they’ve taken most of the year or the plan from last year? Either way, the Vikings should have ways to dissect the Packers’ scheme.

Predictions

Lewis: 20-17 Vikings. Green Bay’s defense has been an abomination against the pass the last three weeks, giving up 8.8 yards per play through the air. Hall may be a rookie, but he should be able to distribute the ball. If he can and Brian Flores’ defense can confound Love enough, the Vikings should be able to pull this out.

Krawczynski: 21-16 Packers. I know the Packers defense has struggled. I think facing a rookie fifth-round draft pick QB without one of the team’s main weapons in Hockenson might mitigate those struggles. Add to it that the Vikings have been just plain awful at home this season and I can’t pick them to win this one.

(Photo of Jaren Hall: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)

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