Vikings-Lions predictions, preview: Can Minnesota keep Detroit from winning the NFC North?

Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell spoke bluntly this week about these Minnesota Vikings: “I do think this is a better team than we faced last year.”

“This defense is much better,” he added, “so it’s not going to be easy.”

The Vikings split with the Lions last year. Both games were close. This year’s first matchup figures to be a dogfight given the stakes. A Vikings loss, and the Lions will have secured their first division title since 1993. A Vikings win, and the playoffs creep that much closer. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis and Jon Krawczynski are here for a preview of the important Week 16 matchup.

What I’m watching

Lewis: Whether or not Jared Goff feels the pressure of Brian Flores’ defense. The last time Goff faced Flores was in Week 8 of the 2020 season. Goff’s Rams and Flores’ Dolphins entered with winning records. That day, Flores heated Goff. Goff was inundated with heavy pressure (six pass rushers or more) on 13 snaps, turning the ball over twice against those looks. Two years prior, in the Rams-Patriots Super Bowl, a Flores blitz forced Goff to throw an interception in the red zone.

The Vikings don’t have the personnel of the 2018 Patriots or 2020 Dolphins. Goff is also more experienced and operates a Lions offense with different personnel. It still feels safe to think Flores will test Goff’s willingness to hang in the pocket, as well as the Lions’ ability to protect him. How Goff handles it should factor heavily in Sunday’s result.

Krawczynski: Nick Mullens’ decision-making. It is interesting how we evaluate the quarterback position these days. He threw two interceptions against the Cincinnati Bengals, and you would have thought he was Nathan Peterman out there. That’s just the nature of the game today. The bar is high when it comes to turnovers at QB, unlike back in the day when Brett Favre would just wing it and take the good with the bad. Mullens is, essentially, the Vikings’ third-string quarterback. You have to expect he is going to turn the ball over more than Kirk Cousins would. How the Vikings weather the inevitable mistakes will be key. I will be watching closely how much last week’s miscues affect Mullens’ aggressiveness this week. Will he be less likely to go down the field? That would be a mistake.

Biggest concerns

Lewis: Ben Johnson’s offense. The Lions combine a stout offensive line, dynamic skill players and an accurate quarterback with a well-choreographed scheme. Johnson’s name dominated last year’s head-coaching cycle and it will again in the months ahead. Detroit does it all well. The Lions rank in the top 10 in yards per play, success rate and explosive play rate. Their rushing attack is diverse. They utilize the play-action pass, similar to the Vikings, to create space in the intermediate areas of the field. They are also infusing stalwart talents like Amon-Ra St. Brown with developing options like Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams. Simply put, Flores and the Vikings defense will have their hands full.

Krawczynski: That the Vikings are at home. Sounds ridiculous, right? U.S. Bank Stadium is one of the best stadiums in the league. It gets loud under the roof, and the Vikings have historically been a very difficult team to beat on their turf. Not this season. They are 2-4 at home. Outside of the victory against San Francisco, all of their best performances this season have come on the road. The last time they were here was that 12-10 stinker of a loss to the Bears. They just have not shown the same juice at home they normally do. And they are going to need it against a more talented roster that seemed to rediscover its mojo last week. Two of the remaining three games are at home. Normally, that would be great for the Vikings’ odds of locking down a playoff spot. But I don’t think anything can be taken for granted. If they’ve lost that home edge, it’s a big, big problem for this team.

Most interesting matchup

Lewis: Aidan Hutchinson versus the Vikings’ right tackle. Brian O’Neill, Minnesota’s starter, missed last week’s game with an ankle injury. Though O’Neill was limited in practice Thursday, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said earlier this week he could be a game-time decision. Backup swing tackle David Quessenberry has filled in admirably this season, but Hutchinson is no joke. He resides among the elite pass rushers in seemingly every metric: pressures, hits, hurries, win rate. Whether or not O’Neill is active, the Vikings must be creative to limit Hutchinson on the edge. If they can’t, he can wreck the game.

Krawczynski: Ty Chandler against the Lions defense. No running back has rushed for more than 67 yards against Detroit this season. I know this is the era of the pass game, but that’s still a very low number, almost half of what Chandler racked up last week in Cincinnati. His performance was encouraging for an offense that needed a boost to compensate for the revolving door at quarterback. Being multifaceted as an offense would do wonders for Mullens. If the Vikings can’t get the ground game going against the Lions, they might be in for a long day. I suppose the hope is that part of the reason the Lions give up so few yards on the ground is that they give up a lot through the air. But is Mullens capable of exploiting that?

Most interesting storyline

Lewis: These two teams being intertwined. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s draft night trade in 2022 with the Lions is relevant here. The Lions selected Williams, whose usage has started to increase. The Vikings, meanwhile, traded down and grabbed Lewis Cine, who is the team’s sixth safety. Then Minnesota acquired tight end T.J. Hockenson from the Lions, who have since replaced him with exceptional rookie Sam LaPorta. The Lions also used one of their 2023 selections on running back Gibbs, whom the Vikings loved. The Lions may lose Ben Johnson to another team. Their cap space may shrink with pending extensions to players like St. Brown and Penei Sewell. But their front office and coach have unequivocally altered the culture, and their draft success has the arrow angled upward.

Krawczynski: That for as great as the Vikings defense has been this season, they have not been able to close the door a couple of times in games that would have dramatically improved their positioning. There is no question the offense has been by far the bigger culprit when it comes to the Vikings sitting at 7-7. The defense has played its tail off to give this team a chance each week. But the Bengals shredded them last week in the fourth quarter. The Vikings needed one more stop against Justin Fields and the Bears to seal that win. The same goes for Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Make no mistake, the defense played well enough in all of those games to win. But the identity of this team has shifted this season. Now there is a reliance on the defense to be superb in big moments. That’s just reality. And the challenge gets bigger this week against a Lions offense full of weapons.

Schematic matchup to keep in mind

The Lions defense tried pretty much everything last season in two games against the Vikings. They played a lot of two-man coverage in the teams’ first matchup, having cornerback Jeff Okudah rough up Justin Jefferson at the line of scrimmage. In the second game, Detroit opted for more man coverage. The Vikings averaged 25 points against them. This year, the Lions could go a different route. They sparingly used Cover 4 last year (3.7 percent), but that has become one of their most-used coverages this season (17.7 percent). Given Detroit’s subpar pass rush, the Vikings could have time to find ways to pluck apart the Lions’ coverage downfield.

Predictions

Lewis: Lions 31, Vikings 24. One element of this game concerns me more than any other: the Lions’ run game. Especially considering the injury report. Defensive tackle Harrison Phillips has not practiced this week due to a back injury, and defensive linemen Jonathan Bullard and Sheldon Day are questionable. At full strength, the Vikings defense ranks 24th in success rate against the run. If the Lions can control the downs and distances, they’re likely to control the game. That’s a big reason why I’m picking Detroit.

Krawczynski: Lions 24, Vikings 20. Given their struggles at home, the uncertainty at quarterback and the talent deficit they face against Detroit, I just can’t go with the Purple here. These are not your older brother’s Lions. These dudes are tough, talented and well coached. Are they Super Bowl-bound? I don’t know about that. But they are not the pushovers they once were.

(Photo: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)

“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.