Samsonov’s return, Keefe’s statement and the halfway point: Monday Morning Leafs Report

What can we say about the Toronto Maple Leafs with half of the 2023-24 regular season in the books?

They continue to look and feel like a good team, just not a great one.

After 41 games and a third straight loss, the Leafs sit third in the Atlantic Division — nine points behind the Boston Bruins with a game in hand, and six back of the Florida Panthers, also with a game in hand. The Detroit Red Wings and Tampa Bay Lightning aren’t far behind.

This team ranks 11th in the NHL in points percentage, trailing Winnipeg, Vancouver, Boston, Colorado, Florida, the New York Rangers, Dallas, Carolina, Los Angeles and Vegas. That feels about right for this group, which will see a tougher schedule in the second half.

The Leafs are on pace for exactly 100 points, with some worrisome stuff going on beneath the hood:

• The Leafs rank 25th overall with 13 wins in regulation. The only teams with less are primarily bottom feeders: Ottawa, Minnesota, Anaheim, Columbus, Chicago, San Jose and Montreal.

• They have played with the lead for about 844 minutes, 19th in the NHL.

• They are 12th in goal differential.

• They rank 20th in goals against per game, and 19th in expected goal rate defensively at five-on-five.

• Their penalty kill ranks 24th.

For comparison’s sake, the Leafs were 25-9-7 after 41 games last season. They were third in the NHL in points percentage; third with 22 regulation wins (nine more than this year); third in goal differential (plus-33), third in time spent leading (at over 1,000 minutes); and fifth in expected goal rate defensively at five-on-five.

They were elite even with more significant injuries (Jake Muzzin, Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie, both goalies) to deal with.

It’s the defensive stuff especially that sticks out and doesn’t bode well for the Leafs’ chances of ending a 57-year Stanley Cup drought this spring. Of the last five Cup winners, four were top six in expected goal rate defensively at five-on-five. The fifth, Vegas last season, ranked 11th.

The Leafs have improved on that front since the early days of the season when John Klingberg and Ryan Reaves were dragging things down, but not to anything special — 15th in the rate of scoring chances allowed, 11th in high-danger attempts yielded (most encouraging), and 15th in expected goals permitted since mid-November.

“We’re gonna score enough,” GM Brad Treliving said earlier this month, “but we have to check.”

That was the big-picture concern with Treliving’s first offseason in charge: The Leafs swapped defence (Ryan O’Reilly, Luke Schenn, Noel Acciari, Alex Kerfoot, Justin Holl) for offence (Tyler Bertuzzi, Klingberg, Max Domi) and ill-fitting intangibles (Reaves).

The step back defensively, especially on the penalty kill, shouldn’t be all that surprising.

“Ups and downs,” said Calle Järnkrok, describing the season to date, before the Leafs let leads slip away against the Avs and Red Wings.

Lucas Raymond celebrates with Dylan Larkin after scoring the empty-net insurance goal for the Red Wings’ 4-2 win on Sunday. (Dan Hamilton / USA Today)

The Leafs have had stretches of stinginess, including a low-chance game against Carolina late last month, but the roster isn’t equipped for any sustained greatness that way. It’s too much, for example, to ask Rielly and a 33-year-old Brodie to chop it up against top lines every night.

Less than two months remain until the March 8 trade deadline.

Is this team one tweak away from greatness? Add Chris Tanev, say, to this bunch and is it enough? It doesn’t feel like it. Nor are the Leafs likely to want to part with a first-round pick (in 2024 or 2026) for Tanev alone. (They have no second-rounders to deal. Also: The Flames are hot. Will they still move Tanev?)

Ideally, if they are trading a first (a question in itself given the amount already moved in recent years), the Leafs are addressing multiple holes, just as they did in trades for Jake McCabe and Sam Lafferty as well as O’Reilly and Acciari.

Do they have the assets and cap space to pull that off?

More defensive utility up front, beyond what’s required on defence, feels necessary. (This team could obviously use reinforcements on the penalty kill.)

Suddenly, first-line left wing feels like a source of some uncertainty. The crease, until Joseph Woll returns and proves he can pick up where he left off, feels tenuous.

Every team has holes. Do the Leafs have too many? Or, with the right moves, can they slide into the inner circle of Cup contenders once again?

One curiosity of mine: What do some of the Leafs’ older players (Brodie, McCabe, John Tavares, Mark Giordano) look like as the season unfolds? Will they wear down?

The top-line talent here is as good as there is, which makes this team a threat to make noise even with no substantial changes. Could this team, as currently constructed, beat the Panthers in a first-round series, even without home-ice advantage? Probably. Could they win three more rounds after that? Hard to see it right now.

Points

1. Sheldon Keefe made it clear that Ilya Samsonov’s return to the net on Sunday was an organizational decision. It was his first start in more than two weeks. “He’s done the work,” Keefe said before the Leafs played the Red Wings, “and we’ve gotta give him a chance to get back in and see if there’s been any sort of progress.”

It was one game, but an encouraging game (three goals on 23 shots) no less for Samsonov. Keefe described it afterward as the best Samsonov has looked all season, the best he’s tracked the puck.

“I thought he battled his ass off,” Keefe said.

Samsonov’s next start will come on the Leafs’ upcoming western road trip. (Sunday in Seattle?) The big question now is whether he can turn one good start into two. Samsonov shut out the Nashville Predators on Dec. 9. He gave up 21 goals in his next four outings.

2. Keefe shook up the lineup in a major way against the Red Wings.

Major shakeup from Sheldon Keefe tonight with four new lines.

Of note: Top-line Pontus Holmberg and Mitch Marner with Max Domi:

Holmberg — Matthews — Nylander
Robertson — Tavares — Järnkrok
Bertuzzi — Domi — Marner
Knies — Kämpf — Gregor

— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) January 15, 2024

Among the intriguing moves was promoting Pontus Holmberg to the top line. It’s a move Keefe has clearly been pondering, something he wondered aloud about a day earlier. “He hasn’t necessarily dominated offensively at the AHL level, so you don’t know how much more (offensive upside) is there,” the Leafs coach said of Holmberg, who had 36 points in 55 career games for the Marlies. “But with the skill set that he has, beyond solidifying himself in the league, I think (the question is), can he be more versatile up and down the lineup and (can) his skill set pair well with some of your top players if you need him to?”

Holmberg scored the Leafs’ first goal on Sunday, redirecting a Rielly shot past James Reimer. He’s collected points in four of the last five games. He’s earning more opportunity for himself.

PONTUS WITH THE REDIRECT 🎯 pic.twitter.com/Z3m7vbyExx

— Toronto Maple Leafs (@MapleLeafs) January 15, 2024

3. Also interesting in the shakeup was the pairing of two former London Knights, Domi and Mitch Marner. Keefe said that combination, in particular, was one he’s been eyeing since mid-December when Marner and Domi hooked up in a game that Auston Matthews didn’t play. The connection was apparent in their reunion. Marner looked energized, maybe more than he’s been all season. He scored a goal on a give-and-go with Bertuzzi and attempted eight shots. “I thought Mitch Marner was excellent here tonight,” Keefe said. “I really liked how he and Domi worked together, and with (Bertuzzi) as well.”

4. It’s a totally new look for the Leafs, playing Marner without either one of Matthews or Tavares. Marner has spent the past six seasons playing exclusively with one or the other.

5. Keefe took the weekend to lay the groundwork for improvements in the second half. “Obviously what we’re seeking in the second half is greater consistency in who we are,” he said.

6. Scratching David Kämpf late last month felt like the precursor in his efforts to demand more accountability. Benching Tavares and Bertuzzi for most of the third period on Saturday was the clear next step. The message: Even the captain won’t play if he’s not doing things right. Tavares’ line had a rotten first two periods against the Avalanche. On his first shift in the third, Tavares turned the puck over twice in the offensive zone. He took a penalty on his next shift and didn’t play again until the second-last minute of regulation when the Leafs needed a goal. The benching was significant because of the player in question obviously, but also because it’s never happened before. It was as much a message to the team as it was to Tavares — and would have been that much stronger had Keefe left Tavares on the bench the whole way through.

7. One more serious lineup shift came on the penalty kill. Demoted from first-unit duty after a rough stretch: Kämpf, Marner and Brodie. Replacing them up top were William Nylander, Järnkrok and McCabe. (Brodie returned to PK1 on Sunday with Giordano out of the lineup.) “The puck went in our net in the first 10 seconds,” Keefe said of the changes. “Two games in a row, it hasn’t been good enough off the start.”

8. Tavares had only one shot on Sunday. He’s mired in a shooting slump, with only five goals on 90 shots over his last 25 games.

9. Worth pointing out after the weekend’s events: Matthews is tied for 99th in the NHL with 11 penalties drawn this season. That’s tops among Leafs. (Letting Michael Bunting walk in free agency cost the Leafs something in that department, though Bunting took a healthy number of penalties too obviously.)

10. Another 11 points for Rielly, a first-time All-Star this season, and he’ll move past Tim Horton for third in franchise history for points by a defenceman. Rielly (448) is more than 300 points behind Börje Salming (768) for the top spot.

(Top photo of Ilya Samsonov making a save against J.T. Compher: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey