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If Yoshinobu Yamamoto lands a $300 million contract, as appears increasingly likely, the posting fee would be almost $50 million. Such is the demand for the Japanese right-hander, that at least five big-market clubs seem willing to fork over that additional sum.
The way the posting system works, the club that signs Yamamoto as a free agent would need to pay his Japanese club, the Orix Buffaloes, 20 percent on the first $25 million of the contract, 17.5 percent of the next $25 million and 15 percent of the total exceeding $50 million.
A $300 million contract would put the total at $46.9 million.
The first-year price for Yamamoto, then, could exceed $75 million, depending upon how his contract is structured. At 25, Yamamoto figures to command a deal of at least 10 years. Few would be surprised if the average annual value was $30 million or higher.
Only a few teams can play at that financial level. And virtually all of them — the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Giants and Red Sox — are in the mix for a pitcher who won three straight versions of the Japanese Cy Young award and three straight Pacific League MVPs.
Rarely do the Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, three of the sport’s biggest spenders, target the same free agent. The Giants, meanwhile, remain eager to make a major splash. And the Red Sox, if ownership is intent on making a push, also could be a force.
The field is nothing short of fascinating.
Dodgers
Rarely does Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman sign free agents at the top of the market. Shohei Ohtani was an exception, but that deal was likely fueled by business interests as much as it was by baseball considerations.
Yamamoto would be a purely baseball pursuit, particularly when any marketing benefit would be muted by the presence of Ohtani. But the massive deferrals in Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract might provide an immediate boost for the Dodgers in their pursuit of Yamamoto.
In one sense, the timing lines up almost perfectly.
Ohtani will receive $2 million in each year of his deal, with $68 million deferred. The Dodgers, however, will not need to fund his 2024 deferral until July 1, 2026. The balance of Yamamoto’s posting fee would be due just before that. The team that signs him must pay 50 percent of the fee within the first 14 days, another 25 percent within 12 months and the final 25 percent within 18.
The Dodgers met with Yamamoto on Tuesday. Between injuries, free-agent departures and the major elbow surgery that will prevent Ohtani from pitching in ‘24, the team badly needs starting pitching. Assuming Yamamoto is willing to play alongside Ohtani — no team has ever had two Japanese superstars of such magnitude — he looms as a rather obvious answer.
Yankees
Yamamoto is said to enjoy the spotlight, which makes him a natural fit for New York as well as Los Angeles. The Yankees, even coming off a down year, remain one of the glamor teams in the sport. And they already have traded for Juan Soto, along with fellow outfielders Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo.
The interesting part of the Yankees’ pursuit of Yamamoto is that signing him might diminish their appetite for retaining Soto, who is eligible for free agency at the end of the season. Owner Hal Steinbrenner repeatedly has shown there are limits to his spending. And consider the obligations the Yankees would face if they signed Soto on top of Yamamoto long-term:
Aaron Judge: Earning $40 million annually through 2031.
Gerrit Cole: Earning $36 million annually through 2028. If he opts out at the end of the year, the Yankees can void his decision and retain him by tacking on another $36 million season to the end of his deal.
Giancarlo Stanton: Averaging $26.6 million guaranteed annually, including a $10 million buyout for 2028
Carlos Rodón: Earning $27 million annually through 2028.
Yamamoto: A 10-year deal would take him through 2033.
Soto: His agent, Scott Boras, almost certainly will seek to beat Ohtani’s discounted present value of $460 million. So, let’s assume the floor for Soto is 10 years, $500 million, with no deferrals.
So, combining those salaries and estimates, we’re talking nearly $210 million annually for six players through at least 2028.
None of that should deter the Yankees from going hard after Yamamoto, particularly when they are hardly guaranteed to retain Soto. At his introductory news conference Tuesday, Soto said he has “the best agent in the league and I put everything on him and let him do his magic for me.” Interpret that as you will.
Mets
Perhaps not even Ohtani fit the Mets’ “2025 and beyond” plan better than Yamamoto. Unlike Ohtani, Yamamoto will not cost the team that signs him a draft pick. He is four years younger than Ohtani. And his future as a pitcher is not in question.
For Mets owner Steven Cohen, that combination of factors should prove irresistible. If Cohen chooses, he can tell Yamamoto’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman Media Group, that he will top any offer by $50 million. What exactly would stop him?
Cohen declined to compete with the Yankees for Judge, perhaps because the Mets had greater needs, perhaps out of deference for Steinbrenner, who supported Cohen’s problematic bid to become owner. Yamamoto is a different story, an undeniably outstanding fit.
The danger for Cohen is being used as a stalking horse for a team Yamamoto prefers, perhaps even the Yankees. But the Mets last season successfully incorporated Kodai Senga, a former teammate of Yamamoto’s with Team Japan. Senga has spoken highly of Yamamoto and is also represented by Wolfe.
As one rival executive put it, “If you’re not signing Yamamoto, what’s the point of being Steve Cohen?”
Giants
From Carlos Correa to Aaron Judge, Ohtani to Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, the Giants’ willingness to spend is not in question.
On Tuesday, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters the team was “agreeable” to the exact deal Ohtani wound up finalizing with the Dodgers. Also Tuesday, the team reached agreement on a six-year, $113 million deal with Lee that will require an additional $19 million posting fee. The total investment of $132 million could prove excessive for a player who is coming off a broken ankle in July and not certain to hit major-league pitching.
Could the Giants likewise blow away the field for Yamamoto? They did as much last offseason for Correa, but their 13-year, $350 million agreement collapsed, probably for the better, when they balked at issues raised in the shortstop’s physical.
The competition for Yamamoto is more formidable. Many top free agents are disinclined to come to San Francisco. It seems unlikely Yamamoto would choose the Giants over the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. Would the Giants, if necessary, outbid all those deep-pocketed teams by enough to sign him?
Red Sox
New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has made a series of nifty moves on the margins, but if that’s the kind of makeover the Red Sox wanted, they could have stuck with Chaim Bloom. The Sox still need significant help in their rotation, and they just got outbid by the Royals for righty Seth Lugo, who on Tuesday agreed to a three-year, $45 million deal.
Yamamoto would be a perfect fit, just as he would for other clubs. At 5-foot-10, 176 pounds, he bears a physical resemblance to former Red Sox great Pedro Martinez, who was listed at 5-11, 170. And here’s the question looming over the franchise, ownership in particular: If not Yamamoto, then who?
Free-agent left-hander Jordan Montgomery seemingly would be one possibility. Japanese lefty Shota Imanaga might be another. The Red Sox also could trade for one of the available starters. But if they’re aiming to do something big, Yamamoto should be the priority, unless they want to get sucked into the bidding for NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell.
Ohtani’s choice ultimately came down to preference. The Giants were willing to meet his financial expectations, and the Blue Jays reportedly were, too. Yamamoto faces the same type of decision. He’s going to get his money. The question is, where does he most want to be?
(Photo of Yoshinobu Yamamoto during the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games: Koji Watanabe / Getty Images)
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