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Michigan and Ohio State have been playing football since 1897 — only a few years before Jim Harbaugh and Ryan Day began loathing each other. However, this event didn’t really become a thing that adults with jobs and families lost sleep over until the 1930s.
Coach Francis Schmidt, a Kansan who’d inspired Buckeye fans by explaining how Mighty Michigan put pants on one leg at a time, just like them, delivered four straight wins by shutout from 1934 to 1937 — an unheard-of streak that got Michigan coach Harry Kipke fired and birthed a beloved Buckeye tradition: the little Gold Pants.
The following year, new Michigan coach Fritz Crisler’s first club rebounded with an 18-0 win in Columbus. According to The Michigan Daily, Wolverines fans stormed the field afterward and spent a half-hour trying to tear the goal posts down before giving up.
“It was Ohio’s lone victory of a most enjoyable Michigan afternoon,” The Daily’s dispatch read.
And so, the seeds of hate were sewn.
Ohio State and Michigan battle during the Buckeyes’ 21-7 win in 1954. (Hy Peskin / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)
Jump to 1946. Michigan went to Columbus and hammered Ohio State 58-6 in first-year Buckeyes coach Paul Bixler’s series debut. Up 55-0 on fourth down in the closing moments, Crisler kicked a field goal so his kicker could set a rivalry record. Afterward, he held court in the visiting locker room and declared it the greatest victory anyone saw all year.
Jump to 1954. Woody Hayes’ fourth team dominated Michigan in Columbus on its way to a national title. Afterward, per reports, Crisler made his way through a huge crowd in the Ohio State locker room to offer a handshake to Hayes. The victorious Ohio State coach ensured a newspaper photographer documented the moment, telling all in earshot he wanted it for his scrapbook.
Five years later, the Buckeyes hammered Bump Elliott’s team 50-20 at Michigan Stadium. Up three scores with 32 seconds left, Ohio State hit a 70-yard touchdown pass. Hayes kept his offense in for a two-point try, harking back to Crisler’s field goal more than a decade earlier. After a curt postgame handshake, Hayes was carried off the Michigan Stadium turf by his players.
The hate seeds were now a forest.
Since 1935, the Michigan-Ohio State game has decided a Big Ten title on the final day of the regular season 54 times — 26 of those being winner-takes-all.
Saturday in the Big House will make No. 55. Let’s go to the film …
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When Michigan has the ball
Michigan ran it 76 times for 549 yards combined the last two years versus Ohio State. Harbaugh’s club has the most efficiently diverse power-rush attack in the country, and I don’t know if there’s a close second. The pass offense is actually pretty basic, though, and while the Wolverines have asked more of J.J. McCarthy this season, that still holds true.
The run game — and McCarthy has a big role here, too — is not basic. Anything but.
Most weeks, Michigan has just about every run a team can have on its call sheet. And, like you often see in the NFL, offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore varies the runs he’ll build shots and roll passes off of based on opponent.
Most years, though, Michigan’s line winds up specializing in a handful of concepts. Last year, with Rimington winner Olu Oluwatimi, Michigan’s go-tos often were variations of inside zone, depending on the front. Both of Donovan Edwards’ big runs in this game last year came on inside-zone plays.
MICHIGAN IN STRIDE!! 😎 💪 @UMichFootball
ANOTHER TOUCHDOWN FOR THE WOLVERINES BY @DEdwards__ ! pic.twitter.com/t719GaUKir
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 26, 2022
This year, Michigan once again has shown a bit of everything, with power and duo (sometimes called “power without a puller”) often serving as the core runs. The complexity begins from there.
Michigan mostly relied on power in a 41-13 win over Purdue on Nov. 4, running five variations of it a combined eight times before pulling the starters. The Wolverines ran duo only twice in that game and used three different counters, with some outside zones and other off-tackle concepts sprinkled in.
Most of Michigan’s shot attempts against the Boilermakers came off of power. I counted eight run concepts in total, nearly all from different formations and wrinkles.
A week later at Penn State, Michigan didn’t register a pass in the second half, running it a ridiculous 32 times in a row during a close game. That game was a different story: I counted 12 different duo calls to 11 power plays, with a handful of inside-zone variations as the off-speed pitch — no counters, no outside zones, but a few QB-bash plays and even a quarterback sweep. Michigan didn’t attempt many vertical throws off the run game, but duo action was the preferred call.
For a linebacker light on experience, inside zone, duo and power can look similar. Michigan will hammer you to sleep with the same run disguised multiple ways, and the one time your linebacker fills wrong, Blake Corum or Edwards figure it out and hurt you.
Here’s a duo play from Michigan’s “jumbo 13” personnel group. You’ll note offensive linemen Trente Jones (No. 93) and Myles Hinton (78) are in the game as extra tight ends.
Michigan goes to this group most often in short yardage but also will line up like this pretty much anywhere on the field. It’s usually a run, but you never know which variety. Michigan uses reads with McCarthy out of this alignment, and the full run menu is available.
On this play, Penn State has numbers and still can’t find the fits.
Ohio State’s linebackers have been here before, though. This is an improved run defense in general, and it has gotten much better tackling from the back end this season — specifically, from sophomore defensive back studs Sonny Styles and Davison Igbinosun. It’s not just the offensive line that gets you with Michigan’s run game, as Michigan’s receivers and tight ends are arguably the best blocking skill group in the FBS, too. But Ohio State should have better answers here this year.
Michigan’s offensive line, meantime, is also different than it was in 2022. The Wolverines’ starting tackles are guard-shaped and can have problems with athletic edges in the dropback game. Center Drake Nugent is also not on Oluwatimi’s level, so Buckeyes defensive tackles Michael Hall Jr. and Tyleik Williams will have massive opportunities in this game.
Last year, Michigan’s dominant OL ranked No. 8 nationally in yards before contact per carry (2.77); this year, Michigan’s line has had dominant stretches, but that rank has fallen to 43rd (2.21).
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When Ohio State has the ball
It’s been a fascinating year for the Buckeyes, who have been a work in progress for long stretches of QB Kyle McCord’s first season as a starter. When kept clean, McCord has mostly thrown an accurate ball. In fact, he’s just eight spots behind McCarthy in off-target rate (11.3 percent).
Pressure changes a lot, though. Whereas McCarthy has been one of the best quarterbacks against it this season, McCord ranked No. 101 (out of 106 FBS passers with at least 200 attempts) in expected points added (EPA) per pressured dropback entering last week.
Ohio State’s undefeated anyway, in large part because it has the best player in America.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the cheat code no one has been able to solve. Penn State threw everything it had at him, and Harrison dominated anyway. No FBS player has seen more end-zone targets than Harrison (19), who’s scored nine times on those attempts and has 14 TDs overall. Harrison has 27 explosive receptions (16 yards or more), which rates fourth nationally. He’s also No. 3 in EPA/target among WRs with at least 100 targets, trailing only Oregon’s Troy Franklin and LSU’s Malik Nabers — both of whom are playing with Heisman-contending QBs. All this for an Ohio State offense that’s been inconsistent on the ground.
This will, without question, be the best group of pass catchers Michigan has seen all year, as both WR Emeka Egbuka and TE Cade Stover also have been outstanding.
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The Wolverines play a fair amount of Cover 3 and work out of more quarter-quarter-half (Cover 6) bases than most. Michigan blitzes 25.1 percent of the time (slightly below average). The Wolverines get home, though. They’re No. 1 in the FBS on five-man pressure success rate (73.7 percent), thanks to an active and deep front full of athletic edges who are terrific stunt rushers — Jaylen Harrell is perhaps the best of the bunch.
Despite successful coverage numbers this year, that ability to pressure is Michigan’s best bet for stopping Harrison: get after McCord on obvious pass downs and in the red zone, turn touchdowns into field goals and field goals into punts.
The Ohio State run game is, perhaps, the wild card. There have been flashes this season, but not consistency. However, the Buckeyes have continued to diversify their approach, and while this is still a zone-heavy team, the growth has been undeniable.
Day, in particular, has adjusted his general philosophy on the run game. In his early days at Ohio State, the rush attack was basic and usually served as a breather for a pass-heavy game plan. Now? It’s a true complement, both out of desire (Day wanted the team to get tougher) and necessity (McCord is not C.J. Stroud).
There is a lot more in Ohio State’s run cupboard these days. That was on display last week versus Minnesota, as the Buckeyes sprinkled power, counter and pin-pull runs with their traditional stretch plays — with play action built off everything — during a 37-3 win. Still, Ohio State is below average nationally in yards before contact per carry (1.83, No. 91).
TreVeyon Henderson has improved each week — he was terrific against the Gophers — and now seems as comfortable running gap plays as he’s always been in the zone game.
When the chips are down, though, Ohio State is still a zone team — preferably with a stretch element. Day has always been terrific at building shots off every run concept. Additionally, with Ohio State expanding its run-scheme menu, a greater demand has been put on the tight ends and receivers to become much better blockers.
As you’ll see here from Stover and Egbuka, the slicer on this play, that challenge has been met.
This is still Ohio State’s bread and butter, although anything that creates one-on-one in space for Henderson is preferable because he’s one of the country’s best in the open field.
One of my favorite players on Ohio State’s roster is fullback/running back/H-back Chip Trayanum, who has been a very dependable gap runner while turning into one of the Buckeyes’ best space blockers. If Trayanum can find a way to help spring five to 10 plays, that’ll be a huge win for the Buckeyes.
Can Ohio State contain Blake Corum and Michigan’s run game this year? (Aaron J. Thornton / Getty Images)
Final thoughts
The reason this rivalry (in my opinion) remains the best in football is the century-long arms race between the two. When one side finds something good about itself, the other immediately does all it can to ruin it.
There are two reasons why Michigan beat Ohio State the last two years: red zone defense and an ability to completely dominate the line of scrimmage. The Buckeyes’ response, therefore, has been about the trenches on both sides — an adjustment that could make this matchup a true classic.
You’ll note we’ve gone this far without getting into Michigan’s illegal sign-stealing saga. When it comes to being able to fit a run and get off a block, Michigan could’ve given Ohio State its entire game plan the last two years and those rush numbers would’ve remained. However, the number of critical defensive stops Michigan was able to come up with — specifically on third downs — is another story. If Michigan had terrific sign intel, those are moments where Ohio State is right to argue this was a problem.
Harbaugh will miss Saturday’s game as he serves the third of a three-game suspension. Michigan’s offense is paying a price there because Moore — who already was wearing multiple hats as offensive coordinator/OL coach — now is doing the job of three people. Last week’s win over Maryland (without injured LT LaDarius Henderson, who’s expected back Saturday) was Michigan’s worst offensive day of the year.
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The offense at Penn State two weeks ago, against a defense similar to Ohio State’s, was ultraconservative in ways it cannot be Saturday.
I expect Ohio State’s defense to have a much better answer versus the run this time, which would put the whole thing back in McCarthy’s hands. McCarthy has had legit Heisman-worthy stretches this season. He’s no longer near the top of that award debate, but his talent is undeniable, and this will need to be the best game of his college career. As part of that, although he’s appeared a bit banged up of late, McCarthy likely will have to be involved in the run game for Michigan to win.
Michigan’s run game has to work or its plan goes to hell. It’s that simple.
This year’s installment of The Game will be won or lost by what happens on third down when Ohio State has the ball in the red zone. I’d expect both sides to be able to move it offensively, though not in any overwhelming sense. It could be a lower-possession game, so if Day’s offense can execute in those moments, the Buckeyes can snap this skid and get the rivalry flipped back their direction.
If Day’s sideline performance in those spots is anything like it’s been the last two years, then Michigan is going to win the game — with Harbaugh, the big bad wolf, watching from a recliner at his house — and Day will have to deal with all things that come with a three-game losing streak.
Welcome back to The Hate Forest, everyone.
Take a seat and hold on to something.
(Top photo: Frank Jansky / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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