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“Governor Bullock will likely try to pitch the decision as largely precautionary in nature,” co-portfolio manager of the T Rowe Price dynamic global bond strategy, Scott Solomon, said.
The prospect of a pre-Christmas rate rise has been playing on the minds of industry groups for weeks now, with the Australian Retailers Association flagging in October that the sector faced significant uncertainty in the lead-up to Christmas trade.
“Australian mortgage-holders will be carefully watching the RBA’s decisions over the next few months with bated breath, but so too will retailers,” ARA boss Paul Zahra said when discussing the group’s projection that overall festive spending would be up by just 0.1 per cent to $66.8 billion this year.
The sector is pinning its hopes on a surge in early sales across the Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend in late November. Early sales numbers from Click Frenzy, the first online sales event on the pre-Christmas calendar in Australia, also suggest consumers are getting in early to make their dollars go further over the coming weeks.
Data from e-commerce logistics platform Shippit shows there was a 10 per cent jump in orders for Click Frenzy compared with last year. However, Shippit data also points to consumers prioritising essential spending over discretionary this time of year.
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Analysis of more than 2 million orders through the platform shows that spending on sports and outdoor activities, pet food and auto goods have had the strongest year-on-year growth between November 2022 and November 2023.
Meanwhile, online sales of shoes and footwear have dropped 20 per cent through the platform, while cosmetics are down by 15 per cent.
Shippit co-chief executive Rob Hango-Zada said cost pressures will be top of mind in the coming weeks in light of November’s possible rate rise.
“We anticipate shoppers coming out in force to stock up ahead of the festive gifting season, but the impact on December sales will be harder to forecast.”
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