Global Youth Mortality Rising Despite Overall Health Gains, Warns New GBD Study

A new Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, published in The Lancet and presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin, warns that while overall global mortality rates are falling, deaths among adolescents and young adults are rising. The study also highlights that non-communicable diseases (NCDs) now account for nearly two-thirds of global deaths and disability, with ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes leading the toll.

“The rapid growth in the world’s aging population and evolving risk factors have ushered in a new era of global health challenges,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington School of Medicine. “This study is a wake-up call for governments and healthcare leaders to respond swiftly to these disturbing trends.”

The GBD 2023 study analyzed data for 375 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Using over 310,000 sources, including new vital registration data, it provides the most comprehensive assessment of global health loss to date.

Youth Mortality Trends
While global age-standardized mortality has declined by 67% since 1950, adolescents and young adults are experiencing rising death rates. Between 2011 and 2023, deaths among those aged 20–39 increased in high-income North America due to suicide, drug overdose, and alcohol-related causes. Mortality for ages 5–19 also rose in Eastern Europe, high-income North America, and the Caribbean.

In sub-Saharan Africa, mortality among children aged 5–14 was higher than previously estimated, driven by respiratory infections, tuberculosis, other infectious diseases, and unintentional injuries. Young adult females aged 15–29 in the region also faced 61% higher mortality than previously thought, largely due to maternal mortality, road injuries, and meningitis.

Shift to Non-Communicable Diseases
Deaths are increasingly caused by NCDs, which now dominate the global disease burden. Ischemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes are leading causes, while COVID-19 has fallen to the 20th position globally in 2023. Low-income regions are particularly affected by rising NCDs, creating challenges for limited healthcare resources.

Preventable Risk Factors
The study finds that nearly half of all death and disability could be prevented by addressing modifiable risk factors. Key risks include high blood pressure, air pollution, smoking, high blood sugar, high BMI, high cholesterol, child growth failure, and lead exposure. Mental health disorders, such as anxiety and depression, have also surged globally, particularly among young adults.

For children under 5, malnutrition, air pollution, and unsafe water and sanitation remain leading risks. Among adolescents, iron deficiency and other nutrition-related factors dominate, while unsafe sex, occupational injuries, high BMI, and high blood pressure are major risks for adults aged 15–49.

Urgent Call to Action
Emmanuela Gakidou, senior author and IHME professor, stressed the need to expand health priorities beyond child mortality to include youth and young adults, particularly in regions with high mortality rates. She warned that recent cuts to international aid threaten decades of progress in low-income countries reliant on global health funding for essential care, vaccines, and medicine.

The GBD 2023 findings are accessible through interactive visualization tools such as GBD Compare and GBD Results, providing policymakers with essential data to target interventions and improve global health outcomes.