Australia is tipped for a cold and flu season as bad or worse than the post-Covid onslaught in 2023. See why and how your area could be affected.
The upcoming flu season is projected to be as severe as or even worse than that of 2023, with approximately one in three individuals expected to contract a cold or influenza.
Current flu cases have already doubled compared to the same period last year, indicating a potentially early peak or a surge to unprecedented levels, according to an epidemiologist.
In 2023, influenza affected over 300,000 Australians, marking its resurgence in a world that had transitioned to a post-COVID era.
Pharmaceutical consultants IQVIA have utilized various data sources including cold and flu reports, medicine sales figures, weather predictions, and vaccination rates to model the flu season.
Dr. Sashi Anantham, a principal at IQVIA, noted that this year’s flu season is commencing earlier than usual, suggesting a potency akin to or surpassing that of 2023.
Cities like Newcastle and Liverpool in NSW, and Southport in Queensland are anticipated to be particularly hard hit according to the modeling.
While acknowledging the inconvenience caused by flu season, Dr. Anantham emphasized the importance of preparedness in managing disruptions such as time off work and childcare adjustments.
Professor Adrian Esterman from the University of South Australia highlighted the challenge in tracking and predicting colds due to limited data availability, as most individuals do not seek medical attention for common colds.
Though current influenza cases are notably high and double that of the same period last year, Professor Esterman cautioned against extrapolating this to an overall doubling for the entire flu season, suggesting the possibility of an early peak.
While retail data serves as a reasonable indicator of flu season severity, it doesn’t differentiate between influenza, common colds, or other respiratory viruses like RSV, the professor explained.
Vaccination against the flu is particularly crucial for vulnerable populations such as young children, the elderly, and pregnant individuals, emphasized Professor Esterman.
He also highlighted the Australian Sentinel Practices Research Network as a valuable source of data on influenza-like illnesses, though there seems to be a delay in the release of the latest reports.
The nation’s cold & flu capitals:
1. Newcastle, NSW
2. Liverpool, NSW
3. Southport, QLD
4. Blacktown, NSW
5. Hornsby, NSW
6. Hurstville, NSW
7. Hillarys, WA
8. Tamworth, NSW
9. Orange, NSW
10. Fremantle, WA
Areas forecast for most cold and flu symptoms:
NSW: Newcastle, Liverpool, Blacktown
Queensland: Southport, Cairns, Hervey Bay
South Australia: Clovelly Park, Torrensville, Seaford
Tasmania: Launceston, Lindisfarne, Sandy Bay
Victoria: Warrnambool, Baxter, Prahran
Western Australia: Hillarys, Fremantle, Mirrabooka
