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ASX slips on last trading session of the year, but local bourse records strongest annual gains since 2021

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Gold miner Newmont Corporation also tumbled 2.6 per cent after the price of spot gold slipped 0.3 per cent to $US2072.25 an ounce at 1.49pm in New York.

Origin Energy recorded the sharpest increase among large-cap stocks after its shares lifted 1 per cent, followed by James Hardie Industries (up 0.9 per cent) and Insurance Australia (up 0.7 per cent.

On the flipside, Newmont Corporation was the weakest large-cap stock, followed by Meridian Energy (down 1.9 per cent), Mercury NZ (down 1.8 per cent) and GQG Partners (down 1.7 per cent).

World shares edged up on Thursday as expectations of interest rate cuts stretched a rally in US stocks, while benchmark Treasury yields and the dollar lifted slightly from five-month lows.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14 per cent, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 were little changed. The S&P index has climbed 11.6 per cent this quarter and closed within a whisker of its all-time closing peak, while its price-to-earnings ratio is up by a quarter on the year at 24.0.

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The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, gained 0.08 per cent. European shares ticked down, but stood near a 23-month high hit two weeks ago and were on course for gains of about 12.5 per cent this year.

“Right now, we really do not want to step in front of Santa’s gift-laden sleigh,” Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, wrote in a note Thursday. “It appears the rally could very well put the S&P 500 Index at or very near an all-time record high as we close out the year.”

Still, Wren said the market “will struggle to post meaningful gains in the first part of the year while the economy continues to slow”.

The number of Americans filing initial claims for unemployment benefits rose last week, according to data released on Thursday (Washington time), indicating the labor market continues to cool in the year’s fourth quarter.

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“Claims data have told a consistent story in recent months of slowing hiring, but still limited layoffs,” Citi analysts wrote in a note.

Even so, investors have ramped up bets on rapid-fire rate cuts next year from the US Federal Reserve.

“The rapid decline in inflation is likely to lead the Fed to cut early and fast to reset the policy rate from a level that most participants will likely soon see as far offside,” analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a note.

“We expect three consecutive 25-basis point cuts in March, May, and June, followed by one cut per quarter until the funds rate reaches 3.25-3.5 per cent in 2025 Q3. Our forecast implies five cuts in 2024 and 3 more cuts in 2025,” Goldman Sachs said.

Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan added 1.4 per cent, boosted by gains in Chinese stocks. The index is up about 7.4 per cent this quarter.

People commuting by bicycle ride past a construction site during rush hour in Beijing.

People commuting by bicycle ride past a construction site during rush hour in Beijing.Credit: Getty

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes stood at 3.844 per cent, slightly up on the day after hitting a five-month low overnight. The two-year yield ticked back up on the day to 4.275 per cent, having been as high as 5.295 per cent as recently as October.

The lower levels, while consistent with the overall trend, were helped by robust demand at a five-year Treasury auction.

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