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ECONOMYNEXT — National People’s Power (NPP) leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake had support among 50 percent of 522 adults surveyed by the Institute for Health Policy (IHP) in December 2023 in a monthly voting intent poll for Sri Lanka’s upcoming presidential election.
According to IHP’s Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey (SLOTS) Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) estimates, support for Dissanayake in December among the surveyed adults was significantly ahead of 33 percent for opposition leader Sajith Premadasa and 9 percent for President Ranil Wickremesinghe. A generic candidate for the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) scored 8 percent.
According to a separate general election voting intention poll also carried out by IHP among 522 for December 2023, Dissanayake’s leftist NPP was enjoyed the support of 39 percen, ahead of Premadasa’s main opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) at 27 percent, the president’s United National Party (UNP) at 6 percent and the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) at 10 percent.
With regard to presidential voting intent, support for the NPP leader has increased 14 points since mid-2023, with the December
estimates suggesting a possible drop in that month, IHP said in a statement. Support for Premadasa has increased 3 points since September 2023 with a rising trend in that time, while support for President Wickremesinghe has declined in the same six months.
“This update is for all adults and is based on a revised MRP model using data from 14,941 interviews conducted from Oct. 2021 to 7 January 2024, with 522 interviews during December 2023. IHP will resume reporting voting intent amongst likely voters at a later date. 100 model iterations were run to capture model uncertainty. Margins of error are assessed 1–4% for December,” the institute said.
“The SLOTS combines interviews from a national sample of adults (ages 18 and over) reached by random digit dialling of mobile numbers, and others coming from a national panel of respondents who were previously recruited through random selection. IHP estimates voting intent using an adaptation of Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP), with multiple imputation to account for uncertainties in its modelling, exploiting data from all SLOTS interviews to estimate voting in a particular month.
“The December 2023 MRP estimates are based on 522 interviews conducted in December 2023, and 14,941 interviews conducted overall from 1 October 2021–7 January 2024, with a margin of error assessed as 3–4 percent for Dissanayake, Premadasa and 1–2 percent for Ranil Wickremesinghe and the other potential candidate. All estimates are adjusted to ensure the sample matches the national population with respect to age, sex, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, education, geographical location, and voting in the 2019 Presidential and 2020 General Elections.” (Colombo/Jan31/2024)
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