In a much-anticipated announcement, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal monsoon rains across most parts of India from June to September. This forecast brings a ray of hope for the country, especially after last year’s subpar monsoon, which had a significant impact on agricultural output. The monsoon season, spanning four months, holds immense importance as it contributes to 70% of the annual rainfall in the country.
Dr. M Ravichandran, secretary to the Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated, “The southwest monsoon is likely to be above normal, mostly on the higher side during June to September. It is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of +/-5%.” This prediction surpasses the average long-term rainfall, which stands at 87 cm for the period from 1971 to 2020.
While some parts of extreme northwest India and northeastern states may experience deficient rainfall, the overall probability of above-normal rains is estimated at 61%. This forecast comes as a relief, especially for regions like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, which faced inadequate rainfall last year.
Several factors contribute to this optimistic forecast. Unlike the previous year, favorable conditions are prevailing this time. The moderate El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to transition into neutral conditions by June, coinciding with the onset of the monsoon. Furthermore, the possibility of La Nina during the second half of the monsoon augurs well for above-normal rainfall. Historically, La Nina years have often resulted in favorable monsoon rains, barring a few exceptions.
Additionally, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is anticipated to transition into its positive phase, further supporting a good monsoon. Moreover, the reduced snow cover over the Northern Hemisphere during December to January hints at conducive conditions for monsoon activity over India.
The IMD plans to provide an updated forecast in late May, just before the monsoon sets in over Kerala. With promising indications for an above-normal monsoon, India can anticipate a boost in agricultural productivity, thereby uplifting the economy and livelihoods dependent on it.
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