Surging Fertilizer Costs Could Push Canadian Food Prices Up Soon

Canadian grocery prices may surge in the coming months if the ongoing conflict in Iran continues, according to farming experts. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have blocked about a third of the global fertilizer supply, causing significant increases in the cost of essential crop nutrients such as urea and dry nitrogen.

Derryn Shrosbree, a farmer and agricultural advisor with Toronto-based firm 33seven, explains that these price hikes are adding $40–$60 per acre to the cost of planting and maintaining crops.

“These rising input costs are already felt by farmers,” Shrosbree said. “If the trend continues, shortages are inevitable, and grocery prices will jump rapidly.”

According to Shrosbree, urea has increased by around $500 per tonne while dry nitrogen is up $250 per tonne, driving an expected 10–15% rise in base commodity prices, depending on the crop.

While these cost pressures are significant, Shrosbree notes that Canadian farmers have stockpiled sufficient fuel and fertilizer to complete planting this season. “We have enough nitrogen, urea, sulfur, and phosphates to start the season without issues,” he added.

However, he warns that potential diesel shortages by harvest time in September could impact crop yields, since farm machinery such as combines consume large amounts of fuel. “If diesel runs short, it could affect the crops and, in turn, consumer prices,” he said.

The expert emphasizes that while supply chains are currently stable, the combination of rising fertilizer costs and fuel dependency could lead to noticeable spikes in grocery bills for Canadian consumers if geopolitical tensions persist.