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A major political and financial shock unfolded on Wednesday when Rachel Reeves’s budget was revealed 40 minutes ahead of schedule—not by parliament, but through an unexpected publication by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Just before noon, Reuters began releasing headline after headline outlining the Chancellor’s budget, triggering swift reactions across financial markets. One alert published at 11.41am highlighted future tax increases that were expected to generate £26.1 billion by 2029–2030.
Newsrooms, traders, and Westminster were thrown into confusion as it became clear that the OBR had accidentally uploaded its confidential economic and fiscal outlook online ahead of Reeves’s speech.
The leak caused immediate market movement, including a drop in UK 10-year bond yields and a noticeable rise in the value of the pound. Initially, the OBR suggested the leak may have come from elsewhere, but within minutes Downing Street confirmed the mistake came from the watchdog itself.
The Chancellor was seen checking her phone moments before stepping up to speak at 12.35pm, as MPs scrambled to adjust talking points and documentation. The OBR quickly issued a public apology and launched an internal investigation into how such sensitive material reached the public prematurely.
Budget details are traditionally guarded with extreme caution, though previous leaks have occurred—most famously in 2013, when George Osborne’s Budget appeared on the Evening Standard front page before he presented it in Parliament. In 1947, Chancellor Hugh Dalton even resigned after sharing Budget details with a journalist moments before his speech.
This latest breach sparked serious concern. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride said in Parliament that the leak could amount to a criminal act, calling it “utterly outrageous.”
Despite the fallout, Reeves maintains full confidence in OBR chair Richard Hughes, who admitted the upload was a mistake. Metadata from the leaked PDF shows it was last edited at 3:10am on November 25, suggesting a technical or human error during preparation.
Some insiders argue that firing officials would be premature before the full investigation concludes. Others say this incident strengthens long-standing criticism of the OBR, which has often been accused of misjudging economic forecasts and supporting austerity-leaning policy.
While there is support for Reeves’s plan to hold only one annual fiscal event—paired with two OBR forecasts—many believe more caution is needed to restore public confidence, especially after such a significant breach.
As Deputy Speaker Nusrat Ghani summarized, the episode highlights a worrying decline in Budget confidentiality:
“This all falls short of the standards that the House expects.”
