Trump’s Policies Push India Closer to China Amid Trade Tensions

India’s strategic alignment is facing new challenges as U.S.-India relations cool under the Trump administration, paving the way for renewed cooperation between India and China.

The rift began when Washington threatened to double tariffs on Indian goods to 50%, citing India’s import of Russian oil. The sudden trade dispute has put years of growing collaboration between the United States and India at risk, particularly in security and technology sectors aimed at countering China’s global influence.

In contrast, ties between India and China are showing signs of improvement. The thaw started last October when President Xi Jinping met Prime Minister Narendra Modi at an emerging economies summit in Kazan, Russia. Since then, both nations have increased official visits, eased travel visa restrictions, and restored direct flights. Beijing even allowed Indian pilgrims to visit holy sites in Tibet and is discussing reopening trade posts along the border.

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi visited India for the first time in over three years to continue talks on economic, trade, and border issues. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Modi plans to attend a regional security summit in Tianjin, China, this month, alongside Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Despite warming ties, several challenges remain. India and China still dispute their 2,100-mile shared border, and Beijing maintains close relations with Pakistan. India also remains cautious, balancing its engagement with China against its historically nonaligned foreign policy and the Quad defense partnership with the U.S., Japan, and Australia.

Chinese analysts have welcomed India’s gestures but emphasized that Beijing will not compromise on national interests, including support for Pakistan. India, in turn, is navigating a cautious path, seeking economic and strategic cooperation without overcommitting.

Analysts suggest that India’s current pivot toward China is driven by strategic necessity, responding to the U.S. trade standoff, while aiming to maintain stability in Asia’s geopolitical landscape.