Victorians are being warned Boxing Day could bring the worst bushfire conditions since Black Summer, with property damage already confirmed during a challenging few days for firefighters.
Significant warnings remain in place for an out-of-control blaze in the Grampians National Park in the state’s west, which has burnt more than 40,000 hectares and has a 300-kilometre long perimeter.
Multiple communities in the Grampians are expected to face significant threat on Boxing Day, including Halls Gap and Pomonal, where 46 homes were destroyed earlier this year.
Authorities are also concerned by a fire burning at Bullengarook, west of Gisborne, which remains out of control.
Crews are strengthening control lines around a fire at The Gurdies, in South Gippsland, where Emergency Management Commissioner Rick Nugent has confirmed the loss of some sheds and outbuildings.
Authorities are bracing for the weather to worsen and pose an extreme fire danger on Boxing Day and December 27, and may declare a statewide total fire ban.
Temperatures on Thursday are expected to soar to between 38 and 42 degrees in the state’s north, with gusty northerly winds over western and central districts ahead of a strong south-westerly change which could bring gusts of up to 100 kilometres an hour.
“These conditions will make it for easier for fires to start and to spread, and for existing fires to race off in the direction of the wind,” Mr Nugent said.
“Please listen to the warnings, please heed those warnings.”
A catastrophic fire danger for the Wimmera has been downgraded to the high end of Extreme, but two more regions — the North-East and the South and West Gippsland areas — have been upgraded to Extreme.
The State Control Centre’s Luke Heagerty said the fire danger in some regions would be the worst since the 2019/20 when properties and lives were lost.
“It’s important that people understand that Thursday is a day with serious potential and we know that Thursday is a day when people will be planning to travel,” he said.
“Boxing Day, we have to be clear, is going to be problematic,” said Deputy Premier Ben Carroll.
“Boxing Day is going to be a big day for our state.”
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Victorians urged to avoid non-essential travel through danger zones
Crews have arrived from Tasmania, Queensland, New South Wales and the ACT, including more than 80 specialist firefighters who have been sent to the Ararat base camp to help fight the Grampians fire.
Additional aircraft have also been brought in, boosting the fleet to 70.
Mr Nugent said an “enormous” amount of preparation was underway, including worst-case scenario testing, and he urged locals to prepare their properties.
“We can’t do this on our own. We’re asking all Victorians to understand your local risk,” he said.
“Only drive through the areas that are in Extreme if you absolutely have to.”
Forest Fire Management Victoria’s Chief Fire Officer Chris Hardman said wind changes were a significant and dangerous time during a fire.
“Most fatalities occur on bushfires at the time of the wind change,” Mr Hardman said.
He warned the south-westerly winds could cause the Grampians fire to spread rapidly towards communities on the eastern side of the blaze.
“When Mother Natures decides that she’s going to push fire at a rapid rate, it becomes what we call ‘beyond suppression limits’ so firefighters, occasionally, it’s not possible for them to make a difference,” he said.
Mr Hardman said a fire burning at Creswick, north of Ballarat, also had potential to threaten heavily populated areas.
“That fire has enormous potential to spread all the way into the northern suburbs of Ballarat,” he said.
The Country Fire Authority’s Chief Officer Jason Heffernan said humidity would remain in the single digits and any rain would likely only be small showers.
“The fuel is very dry, the bush is dry. It is ready to burn,” he said.
“Boxing Day will not be a day to be complacent.”
Emergency Services Minister Vicki Ward said the state government was looking to enact disaster relief payments to those affected by the Grampians fire during the crucial Christmas period.
“At the moment the focus is on immediate response … but of course we do also understand how challenging this can be for a community that relies very heavily on tourism,” she said.
She thanked the fire crews as well as the volunteers at emergency relief centres.
“A part of that gratitude means if you don’t need to travel on Boxing Day, please don’t,” she said.
“We need you to be safe, we need those communities to be safe.”
Pomonal CFA captain Steve Field said containment lines were holding on the northern end but the southern part of the fire was generating numerous breakouts.
“Anxiety levels between the brigade members and the local community are pretty high,” Mr Field said.
“Having the presence of other strike teams and fire trucks supporting us has been really great, but it’s really just a watch and wait here in Pomonal.”
Mr Field said Christmas had been put on hold.
“With the weather going to be around 35 [degrees] on Christmas day and then up to 42 with the northerly blowing, that’ll be a considerable concern for us,” he said.
“We just have to be prepared and hope that the containment lines are back burning work.”
Temperatures across the state are forecast to steadily climb during the week, reaching the mid 30s on Christmas Day and as high as the low 40s in some areas on Boxing Day.
The fire danger rating on Boxing Day is forecast to be Catastrophic in the Wimmera and Extreme in the Mallee, Northern Country, North Central, South West and Central districts.
