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It’s impossible to know how much the league has improved quarterback evaluation since the first NFL Draft in 1936. One thing we have learned for sure is that environment is everything. Countless quarterbacks were never truly given a chance to develop and flourish because the teams drafting them typically earned their draft position because of how bad they were.
Young quarterbacks have a hierarchy of needs to be met to self-actualize into franchise quarterbacks. They need pass protection, weapons to throw to, a run game and defense to support them, and a play-caller whom they can trust. Of course, some young quarterbacks are talented enough to overcome not having every need met, but teams shouldn’t count on that.
Seven teams coming into next week’s draft are looking for their quarterback of the future. I ranked them on how QB-friendly they are.
Pass blocking: B
Run game: B
Weapons: A
Play-caller: A-
Defense: A-
What more can you ask for as a signal-caller? Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the game. Jordan Addison can be one of the better No. 2 receivers in the league. Tight end T.J. Hockenson won’t be ready at the beginning of the season because he tore his ACL late last season, but he’ll be back.
The Vikings could use interior offensive line upgrades, but they already have one of the league’s best tackle duos with left tackle Christian Darrisaw and right tackle Brian O’Neill. They finished 13th in offensive rushing success last season despite defenses being able to focus on the run more with Jefferson and Kirk Cousins missing significant time. Jefferson’s presence makes it hard for teams to put that extra defender in the box no matter who is playing quarterback.
Head coach Kevin O’Connell is a strong play-caller who can get his best weapons the ball, schemes up ways that make it difficult to double Jefferson and takes advantage of the extra attention Jefferson gets. Minnesota still finished 10th in yards per play last season despite Jefferson missing eight games and Cousins missing 10.
Ultimately, the potential for a long-term partnership with O’Connell and Jefferson makes the Vikings the top destination for a young quarterback. The Vikings also play in a dome, which is conducive to passing.
I’d love to see Drake Maye fall to No. 4 and for the Vikings to trade up to get him. Despite some accuracy issues, Maye would be in a much better situation with talent relative to his competition than he was at North Carolina. He’ll take chances and give his playmakers chances to make plays. There might be some misfires but there would be plenty of fireworks.
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Pass blocking: A-
Run game: B
Weapons: A-
Play-caller: C+
Defense: B+
The Bears went from putting Justin Fields into one of the worst situations for a rookie quarterback to setting up their next rookie quarterback with an amazing situation to step into.
They’ve done a great job of steadily rebuilding their offensive line. Braxton Jones, a 2022 fifth-round pick, is a fine left tackle but they could try to upgrade and get an elite left tackle with the No. 9 pick this year. Left guard Teven Jenkins can be elite if he can stay healthy, but that has been a challenge. The Bears traded for Ryan Bates, who’s a significant upgrade at center. Right guard Nate Davis needs to have a bounce-back year but he has shown to be capable in the past. And they drafted right tackle Darnell Wright with the 10th pick last season and he had a promising rookie year.
People can argue all they want about whether DJ Moore is a No. 1 receiver but there is no doubt he can produce. When you pair Moore with newly acquired Keenan Allen, they will make life easy for whoever throws them the ball. Allen is one of the most QB-friendly targets in the league with his ability to win quickly. The Bears could also be in a position at No. 9 to take one of the top three receivers in this year’s draft to add another big-time weapon.
The Bears finished ninth in offensive rushing success last season but Fields’ rushing ability was a big part of it. Caleb Williams, who presumably will be the top pick of the draft, will also add a rushing dynamic but he’s not the athlete that Fields is nor is he big enough to withstand the hits that Fields did. The rushing attack will likely take a step backward without Fields but if the offensive line can stay healthy and jell, their traditional run game with D’Andre Swift should still be productive. Swift also is an excellent pass catcher, which should give Williams another target.
Newly acquired Keenan Allen is expected to make Chicago’s offense more dynamic. (Ryan Kang / Getty Images)
Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron fell out of favor with the Seahawks but he’s an upgrade over Luke Getsy, who struggled to adjust his offense to Fields’ strengths. Waldron should at least provide a solid baseline and give Williams a capable play-caller. Waldron used a lot of multiple tight end sets in Seattle. He likely won’t use it as much in Chicago but he’ll have Cole Kmet, who has been productive, and Gerald Everett, who is one of the better run-after-catch threats at the position, to scheme up plays for.
Also, the Bears’ defense finished on a strong note last season. From Weeks 12-18, Chicago finished third in defensive EPA per snap. It’s a small sample and defense can be volatile from year to year. But if it can at least be an above-average unit, Williams won’t have to force things like he did at USC, where he felt like he had to score on every possession.
The Bears have the tools to give Williams much more help than he had at USC. He has several weapons to whom he can quickly throw the ball, he’ll have a better run game he can rely on and a defense that can get a stop. Williams should thrive in his rookie year because he’s supremely gifted but also because the Bears finally made Chicago a QB-friendly city.
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Pass blocking: B-
Run game: B
Weapons: C+
Play-caller: A
Defense: B
The Raiders have much better weapons than the Broncos, but Denver placed higher because it has Sean Payton, one of the top play-callers in the league. Though Russell Wilson had a messy breakup with the Broncos, Payton put Wilson in a situation with a strong run game and simplified passing game in which he looked like a starting quarterback again.
The Broncos’ offensive line is better at run blocking than pass protection and running back Javonte Williams should be more productive being a season removed from a torn ACL. Jaleel McLaughlin is an explosive threat as a receiver out of the backfield and running back choice routes are a big part of Payton’s passing game.
Receiver Courtland Sutton had 10 touchdowns last season and is a big-play threat, but he’s not the most reliable receiver (seven drops, three fumbles in 2023). Tim Patrick looked like an ascending receiver but hasn’t played in the last two seasons because of devastating preseason injuries. Tight end Greg Dulcich had a promising rookie season but played in only two games last season because of hamstring and foot injuries. The Broncos’ pass catchers have some potential but they should look to draft a receiver.
Denver may not have the draft capital to outbid the Vikings or Giants, but J.J. McCarthy would be excellent in Payton’s system, doing exactly what Wilson did last season but with the potential to expand what he does with more experience. Bo Nix is a more realistic target and his skill set also would be a great fit.
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4. Las Vegas Raiders
Pass blocking: B
Run game: C
Weapons: A-
Play-caller: D
Defense: A-
The Raiders have a strong group of pass catchers led by Davante Adams. Jakobi Meyers is an excellent second option and Tre Tucker is one of the fastest receivers in the league, flashing some big-play ability in his rookie season. Last year’s second-round pick Michael Mayer also has the potential to break out at tight end this season.
The offensive line is a work in progress but the Raiders have a good starting point with left tackle Kolton Miller, one of the most reliable tackles in the league. Left guard Dylan Parham should probably be playing center but he’s adequate, as are right guard Cody Whitehair and center Andre James. The big question will be at right tackle. After letting Jermaine Eluemunor walk in free agency, third-year tackle Thayer Munford Jr. is slated to start. Munford flashed some ability as the Raiders’ swing tackle but they could look for an upgrade either in the first or second round — this is a deep offensive line class.
Davante Adams would provide a big advantage for a young quarterback coming to the Raiders. (Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)
The run game should take a hit with Josh Jacobs leaving in free agency. The Raiders seem to have a lot of faith in third-year back Zamir White, but he’ll have some big shoes to fill.
As mentioned, Getsy has been objectively bad as a play-caller but maybe he was just an odd fit with Fields. The hope in Las Vegas is his offense could be more productive with a quarterback who can work the quick game and play with a better sense of timing. Getsy has West Coast offense roots coming from the Mike McCarthy coaching tree.
The Raiders defense last season finished 12th in points allowed per drive and eighth in defensive DVOA. This offseason, they signed Christian Wilkins, one of the best defensive tackles in the league, to pair with Maxx Crosby.
Having a strong defense and one of the best receivers in the league is a luxury for a young quarterback but having a potential revolving door at play-caller is a big-time negative in the long haul. Michael Penix Jr. is an experienced quarterback with a big arm. He’d feel right at home throwing downfield to Adams and Meyers as he did to Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk at Washington. Penix and the Raiders feel like a natural fit but taking him at No. 13 is a reach. The best-case scenario for the Raiders would be trading back or acquiring another pick in the back end of the first round to draft Penix.
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Pass blocking: C
Run game: B
Weapons: C
Play-caller: Unknown
Defense: A
The Patriots have some major questions with their pass protection, and they should look to add a tackle in the draft. They’re better run blockers than pass protectors. Rhamondre Stevenson is a quality running back and a weapon in the passing game. Other than Stevenson, New England’s pass-catching weapons leave much to be desired. Second-year player Demario Douglas took some time to get going but had 561 yards in 15 games. His development will be key for the Patriots. Tight end Hunter Henry isn’t a star but is a reliable target.
We’ll see if the defense can continue to be an elite unit without Bill Belichick but the Patriots have a roster of difference-makers on that side of the ball. New England should at least be able to help a young quarterback with strong defense and a running game. New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt didn’t call plays when he served in the same role with the Browns. If he tries to replicate what Kevin Stefanski did offensively during Van Pelt’s time in Cleveland, expect a diverse outside zone run game with a sprinkle of quarterback option game.
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6. New York Giants
Pass blocking: F
Run game: C
Weapons: D (potential F)
Play-caller: B
Defense: C
The Giants have Daniel Jones signed for another two seasons but there is buzz that they might make a move in the draft to get one of the top four quarterbacks. The biggest draw New York has is that head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka have shown they can piece together an offense with toothpicks and paperclips. The Giants surprised the league in 2022, finishing 10th in offensive DVOA, but their lack of overall talent especially on their offensive line caught up to them last season. Andrew Thomas is one of the best left tackles in the league but he can only block one rusher at a time. Jones missed significant time and the Giants finished 30th in offensive DVOA. The Giants’ weapons cache is the worst in the league.
Could Mike Kafka rekindle the success he had with Daniel Jones two years ago with a rookie quarterback in 2024? (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
They lost running back Saquon Barkley, one of their few offensive sparks, in free agency this offseason, and haven’t added any significant upgrades to their offensive line. Tight end Darren Waller also is contemplating retirement.
They have some solid receivers with Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson. Rookie Jalin Hyatt showed a little promise last season but it’s a stretch to believe he will ascend to a No. 1 receiver this season.
Most would have agreed that Kafka was one of the hottest young play-callers in the league after 2022. I don’t think he all of a sudden lost his touch. It was a tough situation last season and it could get worse with so many needs on the roster. Kafka might be able to scheme up a run game to help a rookie quarterback but the cupboard is bare. Dealing with a leaky offensive line without dynamic weapons will be tough to overcome for any rookie quarterback, no matter how talented they are.
Pass blocking: C
Run game: B
Weapons: B-
Play-caller: C
Defense: F
Terry McLaurin is a borderline No. 1 receiver. He hasn’t had a monster season yet but that might have to do with quarterback play. Jahan Dotson was disappointing but I still think he can be a productive No. 2 in the right environment. Other than those two, there isn’t much to be excited about with this pass-catching group. The Commanders need to add a weapon in the draft but they have holes all over the roster.
Brian Robinson is an excellent young running back who was underutilized last season in Eric Bieniemy’s pass-happy offense. The running game could be much better under new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who had strong running attacks calling plays for the Cardinals. Kingsbury is a creative play designer but ultimately, the lack of sequencing in his play-calling and lack of attention to detail make his offense hard to watch at times. His offenses in Arizona relied too much on the playmaking abilities of Kyler Murray, and leaning too much on a rookie quarterback to create usually isn’t a recipe for success.
On top of their offensive issues, the Commanders had one of the worst defenses in the league last season. They might be able to improve under the leadership of new head coach Dan Quinn but the defense figures to continue to be a bottom-10 unit. Washington could be a disastrous landing spot for a young quarterback.
(Top photo of Christian Darrisaw, Sean Payton and D.J. Moore: David Berding, Candice Ward and Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images)
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