Lowetide: 5 AHL Oilers prospects with the most value ahead of NHL trade deadline

Edmonton Oilers general manager Ken Holland used the team’s farm system three times last season to bolster the NHL team and push for the Stanley Cup.

In October, he sent prospect defenceman Dmitri Samorukov to the St. Louis Blues for young forward Klim Kostin. The change of scenery was good for Kostin, who delivered 11-10-21 in 57 regular-season games and scored some big playoff goals.

At the deadline, Holland sent away future picks and 2022 first-round pick Reid Schaefer to the Nashville Predators for defenceman Mattias Ekholm. That trade vaulted Edmonton’s defence to a new level and is the best exchange Holland has made as the GM of the Oilers.

A few days later, Holland dealt prospect defenceman Mike Kesselring to the Arizona Coyotes. The acquisition (Nick Bjugstad) was a rental and the Coyotes retained a small amount of cap dollars in order for Edmonton to fit everyone under the cap.

Kesselring’s value to Arizona was key to the deal. The Coyotes scouting department correctly identified a worthy target and things have worked out for all involved.

This year, Holland will be a buyer again and should be willing to move anything not nailed down in an effort to win the Stanley Cup.

Who has the most value? Is there another Kesselring?

Here’s a look.

Kesselring’s path

The first time most Oilers fans saw Kesselring was at the summer development camp post-draft in the summer of 2018. There were more famous names (Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner, Kailer Yamamoto, Ryan McLeod) but Kesselring’s unusual skating style and willingness to join the play offensively stood out.

He didn’t play an NHL game for the Oilers, but his progress for the team’s AHL affiliate (Bakersfield Condors) was noticeable.

During his final season with the club, his even-strength goal share trailed only Phil Kemp (55 percent) and his even-strength points per game (.43) with Bakersfield led Condors defencemen.

Kesselring followed his time in the Oilers system with an impressive NHL debut for the Coyotes.

It’s fair to say the Arizona scouting staff identified a gem, acquired the player at a relatively low cost, and will likely be repaid handsomely for several seasons of quality play from Kesselring at a low cap total.

That’s the goal of every non-playoff team at the deadline.

Broberg’s arrival

A smart NHL team will insist on Philip Broberg’s inclusion at the trade deadline. The young defenceman is clearly frustrated, based on an article by Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic, with his situation while also putting together an impressive resume.

In his NHL work, Broberg has scored just two goals and seven assists over 79 games. He doesn’t get power-play time, so the totals offensively are shy. As a defensive player in the NHL, Broberg has played depth minutes and is the owner of a 47 percent goal share. Take away his rookie season and the goal share climbs to 52 percent. All NHL totals for goal share are five-on-five.

Broberg’s AHL progress over his time in Bakersfield tells a most encouraging story.

These are dominant numbers. In the two seasons Broberg played enough to gather a real sample, his even-strength outscoring is impact level. His offensive prowess is obvious when watching AHL games.

An NHL team destined to finish outside the playoffs would be hard-pressed to find a more ideal acquisition than Broberg. His availability is a perfect storm.

The man who drafted him (Ken Holland) is in the final months of his time as Edmonton’s general manager. Jeff Jackson, the newly hired CEO of hockey ops, is looking to push the Oilers into the Stanley Cup Final. That’s his paramount assignment. Broberg’s future matters less to Jackson than it would to Holland, and that’s a reliable guess based on the history of NHL general managers.

Jackson (and Holland) should be pushing for Stanley. Broberg should be the first ask of opposition general managers. Broberg will very likely have the strongest NHL career of any asset in the organization’s current arsenal. That includes the 2024 first-round selection.

If Holland comes calling, the ask should be Broberg. Kesselring’s strong performance in the NHL is a small indicator. Broberg’s pro resume is the strongest predictor of future success.

Plug and play?

Broberg’s current even-strength goal share and offensive output are impressive, although Oscar Klefbom (0.89 points per game and 71 percent goal share at evens) was more impressive for the Oklahoma City Barons in 2014-15.

Klefbom spent nine games in the minors before recall and would spend the rest of his all-too-brief career in the NHL.

Broberg’s path is blocked by a far more capable NHL depth chart than Klefbom faced in the fall of 2014. The current Oilers defence is deep and of impressive quality. The state of Broberg’s career at this time is similar to Bouchard, who faced a prolonged audition and then a season of rare activity in 2020-21 with the big club.

The numbers from Bakersfield and his NHL time suggest third pairing minutes on an NHL team is something Broberg can manage now. Puck IQ tells us 70 percent of Broberg’s five-on-five ice time with the Oilers in 2023-24 is against mid-level talent and the soft parade. His percentage of time versus elites (30 percent) this season is in the same range as Brett Kulak and Vincent Desharnais. Those two men occupy the team’s third pair and are the most sheltered regulars in the lineup.

Other assets of value

Oliver Rodrigue is a prospect goaltender who is emerging in a season where the organization is unlikely to give him a real NHL shot. Since Rodrigue is waiver eligible next season, it’s possible the young goaltender would have appeal to a team lacking a bona fide NHL goalie prospect.

On defence, there are several interesting recall candidates but most are minor-league veterans with minimal trade value (every NHL team has similar players).

Max Wanner is interesting because he’s playing heavy minutes at age 20 in his first pro season. He’s a shutdown type, and his even-strength goal share (45 percent, 19-23 goals) trails the Condors when Wanner is off the ice (50-39, 56 percent). The young defender has improved and is around 50 percent in the last 10 games. His physical style might be attractive to another NHL team, although Oilers management clearly regards him highly based on the verbal surrounding Wanner.

Among forwards, there is no dominant option like Broberg but there are some interesting options.

The only forward who is performing at a level that suggests he might attract another NHL team’s interest is Raphael Lavoie. There is potential here, and a player like Xavier Bourgault might appeal to a team that rated him highly on his draft day, but this season has surely suppressed his trade value.

Dylan Holloway isn’t included in this look because management appears to have a plan for him this season and beyond.

The five Oilers prospects with the most value ahead of the NHL trade deadline are, in order, Broberg, Lavoie, Rodrigue, Wanner and Bourgault.

This year’s Kesselring? It’s Broberg. The math is screaming NHL-ready, the Oilers will be looking for an upgrade somewhere on the roster at the deadline and Broberg’s agent has been looking for a landing spot for over a month.

Any team with an analytics focus would be a possible destination, but bubble playoff teams or clubs who are already out of postseason contention would seem to be the most likely landing spot.

Expect any of the Pittsburgh Penguins, Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils, Seattle Kraken and Washington Capitals to be a suitable destination if those teams fall out of contention. Don’t rule out the Coyotes, who might just double down on Kesselring’s emergence and another gem.

(Photo of Philip Broberg: Ethan Cairns / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)