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Two games remain in this long and difficult season for the New England Patriots. After the season, we’ll get some answers to the biggest questions facing the team, including who will be leading the franchise’s football operations for 2024 and beyond.
But after that, another big question looms. How will the Patriots use what will likely be their highest draft pick since taking Drew Bledsoe with the No. 1 selection in 1993? And how will that impact what they want to do at quarterback?
Since the next two games don’t matter much, except for their draft position, let’s explore what the Patriots’ offseason plan could look like.
Option 1: Draft a QB, fix everything else in free agency
The thinking here is simple. Most teams rarely get a chance to take one of the best quarterbacks available at the top of the draft. The Patriots haven’t picked in the top five since 1994 — and ideally won’t again for a long time.
We know that having a quarterback on a rookie contract is a nice advantage and that top-tier quarterbacks don’t generally become available in free agency. So the most successful team-building happens when you land a franchise quarterback in the draft.
Fortunately for the Patriots, this is a quarterback-heavy draft with two signal callers who have been ranked at the top of the early big boards for more than a year. If the Patriots land a top-two pick, a prospect that took a serious hit with Sunday’s surprising win over the Broncos, they’d be in line to select either USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye.
Besides, there aren’t a lot of proven free-agent quarterbacks. If they went that route, the best option would be Kirk Cousins, then there would be a meaningful dropoff to players like Ryan Tannehill and Baker Mayfield. Meanwhile, if you hit on a rookie quarterback, you’re set up for the next decade.
The nice thing for the Pats is they’re also projected to have ample cap space to sign free agents. They could target offensive linemen like Jonah Williams or Mekhi Becton, try to re-sign Mike Onwenu and go after a top wide receiver like Tee Higgins or Calvin Ridley. They could do all of that without losing much on defense besides Kyle Dugger.
This is the simplest option for New England this offseason.
With the Eagles defeating the Giants 33-25 on Christmas, the updated order of the 2024 NFL Draft:
The Giants move up again to the No. 5 overall pick, jumping the Chargers and Titans, who were ahead of the Giants 24 hours ago.
The Giants have the weaker strength of schedule over… pic.twitter.com/0rwv9DF9SS
— Doug Rush (@TheDougRush) December 26, 2023
Option 2: Draft WR Marvin Harrison Jr., find a veteran QB
You could make a strong case that this should be the Patriots’ plan, especially if they end up with the No. 3 pick in the draft. In that case, they’d probably be missing out on the top two quarterbacks but could pivot to build around arguably the best wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson in 2007.
Harrison seems like a no-doubter who could arrive and instantly be a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL. That would be a major boost to a Patriots offense in need of consistent targets and playmakers. The Patriots haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since Julian Edelman in 2019.
There also aren’t any top-of-the-line wide receiver options in free agency. Higgins is coming off a down and oft-injured season, Ridley isn’t on pace for 1,000 yards and Mike Evans is going to be 31 next season. So getting Harrison would be an enormous help.
The drawback to this plan is the Pats would still need to figure out the quarterback position. They could sign a veteran like Cousins to a deal that pays him around $35 million per year. Yes, that would eat up a lot of their cap space, but it would solidify the quarterback spot while improving the receiving corps, too.
Or they could trade for a younger quarterback like Justin Fields and hope they could make him more consistent. That could cost a 2025 second-round pick, but it would also keep costs down (at least for now) since Fields is still on his rookie contract.
Option 3: Trade down, launch a rebuild
It’s unlikely owner Robert Kraft would be willing to stomach a several-year rebuild, but let’s play out what that scenario might look like.
If the Patriots get the No. 2 pick but aren’t sold on either quarterback, they could likely get a sizable haul to trade down. If they moved back to, say, No. 7, they could add a first-round pick next year, plus a midround pick or a player in return.
They could then either draft a quarterback like LSU’s Jayden Daniels at No. 7 or opt to bolster the offensive line by taking someone like Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt.
This approach would give the Patriots three first-round picks in two years. That’s a good way to kick off a rebuild, but it’s also a much slower approach to turning around the franchise.
You could also argue that it’s risky to try to find your franchise quarterback until the offensive line is more solidified and that building through players like Alt or Penn State’s Olu Fashanu would better set the team up for selecting a quarterback in 2025.
(Photo of Marvin Harrison Jr.: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
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