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Let’s start with the quarterback sneak.
Facing a third-and-1 or fourth-and-1, NFL teams have tried the play 175 times this season, according to TruMedia. It has been successful 80 percent of the time.
This season, the Minnesota Vikings had tried QB sneaks eight times on third- or fourth-and-1 before Saturday afternoon. Their conversion rate was 87.5 percent, higher than the league average.
“We’ve been pretty successful with the sneak play,” Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell said Monday, “and pretty successful in those short-yardage situations this year.”
The numbers, though, do not lessen the sting of Saturday’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Especially given Minnesota’s final two offensive plays in overtime.
“It means absolutely nothing when you don’t get it done in that moment,” O’Connell said. “Inevitably, it’s on me.”
LIVE: Head Coach Kevin O’Connell talks to the media. https://t.co/80iynxEwdZ
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 18, 2023
A fair sentiment. And, for a head coach in the NFL, the right one. This result does, though, raise a question that has become the subject of much discussion: How many of the Vikings’ recent losses are really on O’Connell?
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That the question even exists is a testament to what this Vikings team, flawed from the beginning, has accomplished.
Let’s briefly revisit the team’s preseason outlook. Factoring in the challenging schedule, the hiring of defensive coordinator Brian Flores and a more experienced offense under O’Connell, an optimistic viewpoint formed: This Vikings team should be better than last year’s, but the record might not show it.
Minnesota’s brass did not double down on aging veterans. It did not review its 13-4 record from 2022, featuring 11 one-score victories, and think: Add a little seasoning, and we’ll be on our way. Instead, continuing its “competitive rebuild” roster-building approach, which has always had its eyes on 2024 and beyond, the Vikings believed in reshuffling the deck and relying on youth. Logically, it felt as if the Vikings could vie for an NFC North title and still have a puncher’s chance in the playoffs.
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Then superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson strained his hamstring. At the time, the Vikings were 1-4. Two weeks later, quarterback Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles. Arguably the team’s two best players would be absent. Hopes and expectations for the season went down the toilet, as evidenced by the dejected locker room in Green Bay following the victory.
Having relevant divisional games to end the season? Making the playoffs? These felt like pipe dreams until Josh Dobbs morphed into NFL Street’s “gamebreaker” mode in Atlanta. Wins against the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints revived the team’s hopes, but the 1-3 roller-coaster ride since then has resulted in some fixating on O’Connell’s late-game decision-making.
Once again Monday, O’Connell explained simply: “There was a reason behind what we were trying to get done (against the Bengals) that had had some effectiveness earlier on in the game.”
Indeed, on a third-and-1 situation in the first quarter, the Vikings activated a tempo call. Quarterback Nick Mullens positioned himself under center Garrett Bradbury, and the Vikings remained in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three receivers) to keep the Bengals from bringing in their goal-line package.
Mullens received the snap, plowed ahead toward the line of scrimmage and running back Ty Chandler shoved him from behind. The result? A first down.
The play’s effectiveness — both throughout the season and earlier in the game against the Bengals’ same personnel — made O’Connell think it could work again. So on third-and-short, receiver Brandon Powell motioned into the backfield behind Mullens, who pushed his way forward. He didn’t get far.
O’Connell said Monday he observed the official near the Vikings’ sideline signal for a first down, so he began planning for the next sequence of plays. Then, the official on the far side of the field signaled that the ball was short of the line to gain.
Meanwhile, assistant coaches sitting upstairs relayed to O’Connell that a particular replay may have shown Mullens reaching the first-down marker. Flores suggested the possibility of calling a timeout to give officials more time to review the play. Play calling and managing the game at the same time is a complex undertaking, which is why O’Connell also employs Ryan Cordell as a game-management coordinator, relaying information in real time. Ultimately, they relayed to him that the booth had reviewed the play and confirmed it as short.
“We wanted to hear the word ‘confirmed,’” O’Connell said Monday, “meaning that they had seen what they needed to see, taking a look at all angles available to confirm that we indeed did not get a first down.”
The second failed sneak on fourth down, with Powell again doing the pushing from behind, yielded an onslaught of questions. O’Connell shared Monday that the Vikings staff had noticed the Bengals being willing to play a defender head-up against the center in bigger personnel groupings. They thought the initial surge would be most effective with lighter personnel.
.@Bengals force a turnover on downs on 4th & Inches #RuleTheJungle
📺: #MINvsCIN on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/vtmfEKvOLy pic.twitter.com/WoFPvYcvT1— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2023
O’Connell also had a legitimate rationale for his lack of aggressiveness late in the fourth quarter against the Chicago Bears in Week 12, as well as his decision to use tempo on the Vikings’ final drive in Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers. A lack of trust in Dobbs played a role in the former amid Dobbs’ four-interception outing, and eliminating the chance for the Chargers to substitute personnel factored into the latter. In general, the Vikings average more air yards per attempt (a signal of downfield aggression) in the fourth quarter than in any other quarter in the game.
This is not to say that O’Connell cannot grow from Saturday’s experience. After the Vikings’ Week 12 loss at home, O’Connell talked about “fighting that battle” between being aggressive and reckless. Following the Week 3 loss, he admitted the finish was “purely on me trying to be too aggressive in that moment.”
Just like winning papers over problems, losses magnify these decisions. Playing with a backup quarterback decreases the overall margin for error. Even if you’re 7-7 in a season where 7-7 seemed possible at full strength. Even if two failed conversions, on high-probability calls, occur in a game where a Nick Mullens-led offense finishes as the third most successful down-to-down offensive performance that week.
(Photo: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
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