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As part of the leadup to Opening Day, The Athletic published its division-by-division previews, culminating with this overview of the entire league. We listed all 30 teams in order of expected wins, which are based on annual projections by one of our fantasy experts, Austin Mock.
Mock’s projection system takes a handful of different metrics including spin rates, pitch velocity, and batted ball data to create a weighted on-base average (wOBA) projection for both hitters and pitchers. From there, the model takes into account playing time and creates a projection for how likely each team is able to beat an average MLB team. Once those projections are created, the season is simulated 100,000 times from start to finish to get various odds (postseason, division, pennant, World Series) and projected wins. The most updated version appears here.
According to Mock’s projections, these five teams lost the most expected wins when compared to last Opening Day:
Minus-6:
Padres
Minus-7:
Brewers,
Guardians
Minus-8:
Mets
Minus-18:
White Sox
Conversely, these six teams gained the most expected wins when compared to a year ago:
Plus-6:
Rangers,
Cubs,
Royals
Plus-7:
Diamondbacks
Plus-10:
Reds,
Orioles
For individual players, we used the projections of another one of our fantasy experts, Jake Ciely
Ciely’s projections use various metrics to create performance on a per plate appearance basis for hitters and a per innings pitched basis for pitchers. From there, a simple projection is used based on total plate appearances and innings pitched for the full season. Additionally, there is what Ciely calls “manual tweaking” after the projections are run — in which judgment calls are based on factors including playing time, telling performances, information on position battles, etc., which will increase or decrease some projections after a final “re-run.”
The players listed for each team represented the top three hitters and pitchers based on Ciely’s projections.
Our resident ex-general manager, Jim Bowden, handed out grades for every team’s lineup, rotation, bullpen, defense and organizational depth. Then he topped it off with an overall grade. Finally, each team’s preview is rounded out by analysis from a member of our MLB writing staff.
The teams are ranked by their expected wins.
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It’s hard to ever say winning a division is a given, but after claiming 10 of the last 11 NL West titles, it’s far from uncharted territory for this group. You don’t commit more than a billion dollars in free agency just to try to win the division. No, these Dodgers spent with eyes on washing away the sting of consecutive first-round exits that spoiled 100-win seasons.
Inking the richest contract in pro sports history (Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million deal) or the richest ever for a pitcher (Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million signing) would represent a splash. Even Tyler Glasnow’s nine-figure extension would, too. But rather than settling for a splash, they’ve affixed the spotlight firmly on themselves.
Winning a World Series is difficult to guarantee on paper, but there might be no club that exemplifies “World Series or bust” quite like this. — Fabian Ardaya
Photo:
Manager Dave Roberts, 9th season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
97.80%
🏆 Win World Series
19.2%
Manager Dave Roberts, 9th season (USA Today)
The Braves won 104 games in 2023, and on paper they’re better now. They return reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., baseball’s first 40-70 player, along with MLB homer and RBI leader Matt Olson and the rest of the sport’s most potent offense.
They beefed up the rotation with the additions of Chris Sale and Reynaldo López to the trio of strikeout machine Spencer Strider, Max Fried and 40-year-old Charlie Morton, who still has elite spin rates and one of baseball’s best curveballs. They fortified the bullpen, which could be the NL’s best and features four lefties including 2021 World Series star Tyler Matzek, who missed two postseasons and the 2023 season after Tommy John surgery. López will begin as the No. 5 starter, but could move to the bullpen if any relievers get hurt or Atlanta decides to promote one of its top prospects, starting pitchers AJ Smith-Shawver or Hurston Waldrep. — David O’Brien
Photo:
Manager Brian Snitker, 9th season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
96.4%
🏆 Win World Series
16.8%
Manager Brian Snitker, 9th season (USA Today)
Pennants have become birthrights for the Astros. They’ve won four and played for three more during this dynastic run through the American League. An eighth consecutive trip to the ALCS is a benchmark of success, not some far-fetched hope. Eight of their nine everyday players return, as do all five of their starting pitchers. Adding Josh Hader to an already dominant back end of the bullpen should again make the Astros the American League favorite and a legitimate World Series contender. Last year, it took until the season’s final day to capture a third consecutive American League West title over the Texas Rangers, who wound up denying Houston a third straight pennant. Full seasons from Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez may create separation the Astros never enjoyed last year. — Chandler Rome
Photo:
Manager Joe Espada, 1st season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
76.3%
🏆 Win World Series
7.1%
Manager Joe Espada, 1st season (Getty Images)
Who knows with the Yankees. The Athletic’s projection model likes their chances to rebound from last year’s disastrous fourth-place finish in the American League East, but there are also many, many ways things could go wrong for them. Here’s what we do know for certain: They won’t have ace Gerrit Cole — the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner — for perhaps two months as he rebounds from an elbow injury. They also won’t have their starting third baseman (DJ LeMahieu) and several key relievers (Tommy Kahnle, Scott Effross). Could the addition of Juan Soto change the Yankees’ fortunes? He’s one of the best young lefty hitters ever, and he could help form a best-in-the-game duo by hitting in front of Aaron Judge. Still, the Yankees need several key veterans to prove that their terrible 2023 seasons were flukes and not who they really are. We’re looking at you, Carlos Rodón, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo. — Brendan Kuty
Photo:
Manager Aaron Boone, 7th season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
74.3%
🏆 Win World Series
7.6%
Manager Aaron Boone, 7th season (Getty Images)
No team has repeated as World Series champions since the Yankees dynasty of 1998-2000. Could the Rangers have a shot?
First they will have to fend off the Astros and Mariners in the AL West. Texas returns one of the game’s most dangerous lineups, led by Corey Seager, Adolis García and Marcus Semien. The Rangers also have the benefit of two potent rookies in Evan Carter and potentially Wyatt Langford adding even more punch to the order.
The big question, again, is pitching. Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle are all starting the year on the injured list. Nathan Eovaldi should be the staff ace after his postseason heroics, but the Rangers have yet to reunite with Jordan Montgomery and failed to trade for Dylan Cease. A Texas bullpen that blew more saves than it converted last year is banking on veteran acquisitions David Robertson and Kirby Yates having resurgent years.— Cody Stavenhagen
Photo:
Manager Bruce Bochy, 2nd season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
66.2%
🏆 Win World Series
5.4%
Manager Bruce Bochy, 2nd season (USA Today)
The Giants struck out on Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, painfully losing both coveted players to their NL West archrivals, yet still managed to execute one of the most ambitious free-agent spending sprees in franchise history. In signing center fielder Jung Hoo Lee, defending NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, third baseman Matt Chapman, DH Jorge Soler, reliever-turned-starter Jordan Hicks, and taking on $74 million while acquiring rehabbing former AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray from Seattle, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi committed nearly $400 million in guaranteed money, ushered the Giants past the luxury tax line for the first time since 2017, and sacrificed two compensatory draft picks to sign a pair of free agents (Chapman, Snell) who could opt out after one season.
That is one heck of a Plan B. Obviously, the Giants are serious about contending. Less obvious is whether they’ll be able to succeed at it in a division where they still might be picked to finish third or fourth. — Andrew Baggarly
Photo:
Manager Bob Melvin, 1st season (Associated Press)
🎟️ Make postseason
63.1%
🏆 Win World Series
3.9%
Manager Bob Melvin, 1st season (Associated Press)
Seattle took a small step backward in 2023, collecting 88 victories after back-to-back 90-win campaigns in 2021 and 2022. The franchise’s new postseason drought is entering its first year. In order to return to October baseball, the Mariners will rely upon their top-flight starting rotation, which could emerge as the best in the sport. The trio of Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert inspires envy, while the back-end duo of Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo both showed promise last season.
The offense will still revolve around 23-year-old outfielder Julio Rodriguez, who overcame a slow start in 2023 to finish with 32 homers and an .818 OPS. Jerry Dipoto added a trio of hitters who can boost the lineup: Mitch Garver, the catcher and designated hitter who aided Texas’s World Series run last season; second baseman Jorge Polanco; and old friend Mitch Haniger, who arrived in a complicated trade that sent Robbie Ray to San Francisco. Seattle came close to dethroning Houston in the American League West last season. The club has a chance to break through in 2024, but the improvement needs to come from within. — Andy McCullough
Photo:
Manager Scott Servais, 9th season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
59.2%
🏆 Win World Series
4.4%
Manager Scott Servais, 9th season (Getty Images)
After five straight losing seasons, the Orioles had a minor breakthrough 2022 (an 83-win season that still resulted in a fourth-place finish) before by a major breakthrough in 2023 when they lead the American League with 101 wins for a first-round exit in the playoffs. The question is not whether the Orioles have arrived, but whether they can hold the throne in the notoriously difficult American League East.
Reigning Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson is only the latest in a string of young, talented position players who have come through the Orioles’ system. Catcher Adley Rutschman and left fielder Austin Hays were All-Stars last season, and 20-year-old Jackson Holliday is the top prospect in the sport with a chance to emerge as yet another homegrown star this season. The Orioles added pitching this winter by trading for ace Corbin Burnes and signing veteran closer Craig Kimbrel.
Young talent brought the Orioles back. Now, how far can it take them? —Chad Jennings
Photo:
Manager Brandon Hyde, 5th season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
59.5%
🏆 Win World Series
4.6%
Manager Brandon Hyde, 5th season (USA Today)
The Blue Jays enter the season with muted expectations. They’re no longer the popular World Series pick around the industry, especially after back-to-back postseason flameouts. In their own division, they’re projected to be behind the Orioles, Yankees and Rays, per FanGraphs. Inside the clubhouse, the Blue Jays remain quietly confident — but in the face of doubters, they have to prove they’re a championship-calibre team with their play.
Pitching should be a strength again, though injuries to starters Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman have put the start of their seasons in jeopardy. But whether Toronto can rise to the top of the AL East will hinge on the offence scoring at a more consistent rate than last year. To do that, guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer and Alejandro Kirk will need to have bounce-back seasons. No one doubts the talent on Toronto’s roster, but it’s time for the Blue Jays to prove they can win when it matters. — Kaitlyn McGrath
Photo:
Manager John Schneider, 3rd season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
56.3%
🏆 Win World Series
4.2%
Manager John Schneider, 3rd season (USA Today)
The Phillies have fallen out of the divisional race by June 1 in each of the last two seasons, and the goal is more ambitious in 2024. A faster start to the season won’t solve everything. But the Phillies feel as if they are positioned to perform better in April and May. Their rotation is more prepared. They avoided any significant injuries during spring training. They have a more favorable early-season schedule.
It’s a roster that would be predicted to win most divisions in baseball, but they happen to share a division with the potent Braves. The Phillies hope that, with an unusual amount of continuity from a season ago, there are fewer surprises. They’re hoping for a more consistent Trea Turner. They have a full season of Bryce Harper at first base. They have two horses at the top of the rotation. They have a hard-throwing bullpen with six legitimate late-inning options. There is a lot to like. — Matt Gelb
Photo:
Manager Rob Thomson, 3rd season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
65.0%
🏆 Win World Series
4.4%
Manager Rob Thomson, 3rd season (Getty Images)
Despite an offseason spent slashing payroll by $30 million and losing key veterans Sonny Gray, Jorge Polanco and Kenta Maeda, the Twins are the clear front-runners in the American League Central and well-positioned for their fourth division title in six seasons.
Much of that depends on the trio of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis staying healthy, but the injury question marks don’t end there. Alex Kirilloff, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart are also health risks, and the Twins have lost key arms Jhoan Duran, Caleb Thielbar and Anthony DeSclafani to spring training injuries.
This is the most talented team in the division, with the star power and depth to rank among the league’s top five lineups and pitching staffs, but they need Duran to get healthy, Correa/Buxton/Lewis to stay healthy and someone to replace Gray atop the rotation alongside ace Pablo López. — Aaron Gleeman
Photo:
Manager Rocco Baldelli, 6th season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
60.2%
🏆 Win World Series
3.8%
Manager Rocco Baldelli, 6th season (USA Today)
The Padres have not finished a full season closer than 18 games back in their division since 2014. That trend could easily continue after a winter in which San Diego underwent the league’s largest payroll reduction while the Dodgers landed Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. The Diamondbacks and Giants also made significant additions.
But last week’s trade for Dylan Cease was a reminder that A.J. Preller, even operating with budget constraints, remains perhaps the most aggressive general manager in the sport. Juan Soto, Blake Snell and Josh Hader are gone, but a rotation fronted by Cease, Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Michael King is a good place to start for a would-be contender. — Dennis Lin
Photo:
Manager Mike Shildt, 1st season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
45.1%
🏆 Win World Series
2.2%
Manager Mike Shildt, 1st season (Getty Images)
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said it best. The success of this Cardinals team will come down to pitching, pitching, pitching. The position-playing core is solid. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt are looking to bounce back after down years, and young talent like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar should anchor the lineup.
But the rotation remains shaky, even after the offseason additions of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The NL Central is no juggernaut, and 85 wins could net the division title. The Cardinals have the lineup to compete in the division, but only if their pitching holds. — Katie Woo
Photo:
Manager Oliver Marmol, 3rd season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
51.4%
🏆 Win World Series
2.4%
Manager Oliver Marmol, 3rd season (USA Today)
The Rays always find a way, don’t they?
Last year’s rotation had a chance to be their best ever, yet when four of their top five starters landed on the Injured List, the Rays still managed to win the second-most games in the American League. Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz emerged as All-Stars, Isaac Paredes garnered down-ballot MVP consideration, and Zach Eflin led the league in wins. With a notoriously limited payroll, the Rays have now been to the playoffs five years in a row. Can that continue?
Many of the Rays’ pitchers are still recovering from injury, and star shortstop Wander Franco’s future is uncertain following his arrest amid sexual exploitation and money laundering charges. Second baseman Brandon Lowe is back from a knee injury, and the rest of their lineup is largely intact from last season. Reinforcement should arrive around mid-season as their rotation gets healthy again. Can the Rays weather the storm to find a way until then? — Chad Jennings
Photo:
Manager Kevin Cash, 9th season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
38.7%
🏆 Win World Series
2.3%
Manager Kevin Cash, 9th season (USA Today)
The Red Sox have finished last in two consecutive seasons and most predictions have them finishing in the basement of the American League East yet again. Outside of Rafael Devers, the Red Sox are a very young and unproven team. Trevor Story, Tyler O’Neill and Nick Pivetta have been around the league, but certainly have something to prove.
Meanwhile, it’s likely the Red Sox have at least three rookies on their Opening Day roster with right fielder Wilyer Abreu, center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela and reliever Justin Slaten. That’s not counting second- and third-year players like Triston Casas, Connor Wong and Brayan Bello. Does that give them a spark to remain competitive? Maybe. But nearly every player on this roster will have to perform to the top of their potential. — Jen McCaffrey
Photo:
Manager Alex Cora, 6th season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
30.9%
🏆 Win World Series
1.6%
Manager Alex Cora, 6th season (Getty Images)
After scampering all the way to the World Series last autumn, the Diamondbacks completed a variety of moves designed to improve upon an 84-win roster. Arizona will face challenges in trying to return to the Fall Classic, especially playing in a division occupied by the Dodgers. But owner Ken Kendrick authorized general manager Mike Hazen to spend in specific areas that should make the Diamondbacks the second-best team in a competitive division, including an 11th hour addition of Jordan Montgomery, one of the pitchers who stymied Arizona in the Fall Classic.
Unable to find a long-term deal, Montgomery took a one-year, $25 million deal with a vesting option to join the Diamondbacks, who had already inked fellow starter Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year, $80 million contract. Montgomery and Rodriguez slot into the middle of the rotation, behind incumbent starters Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. A $42 million deal kept outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the fold. Hazen traded for third baseman Eugenio Suarez, hoping Suarez’s bat will be rejuvenated by leaving Seattle. Joc Pederson has replaced Tommy Pham as the designated hitter, which is an amusing swap for folks with a long memory. — Andy McCullough
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Manager Torey Lovullo, 8th season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
33.0%
🏆 Win World Series
1.3%
Manager Torey Lovullo, 8th season (USA Today)
With this group, Craig Counsell represents the biggest difference between the team that missed last year’s playoffs by one game. The highest-paid manager in baseball will work in a bigger market with more resources and more scrutiny. The lineup has a lot of strong two-way players but not a superstar in the middle of the order. The pitching staff has depth and flexibility but not a long-established No. 1 starter or closer. That’s still enough to compete in an underwhelming division and make adjustments at the trade deadline.— Patrick Mooney
Photo:
Manager Craig Counsell, 1st season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
35.7%
🏆 Win World Series
1.4%
Manager Craig Counsell, 1st season (Getty Images)
The Reds won’t surprise anyone this season, but now everyone knows Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and the rest of the team’s young stars. The Reds are so young that the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year, Jonathan India, seems old in 2024.
Aside from watching the natural progress of the young players, the biggest question is what they can expect from their rotation, including newcomers Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson have to make the step from potential big-league starters to big-league starters that can make 30 starts.
Just as with pretty much every team in the National League Central, there’s a realistic scenario that they finish anywhere from first to fifth in the division, but anything short of a playoff berth would be considered a disappointment. — C. Trent Rosecrans
Photo:
Manager David Bell, 6th season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
33.9%
🏆 Win World Series
1.3%
Manager David Bell, 6th season (Getty Images)
Ahh, the joys of an expanded postseason. Knowing that 84 wins was good enough for not one but two playoff teams in the National League last season sure makes it easier for the Mets to pull off the offseason approach they just did. Following a massively disappointing 87-loss season and a trade-deadline sell-off, New York under new exec David Stearns tinkered on the edges of its roster. The team added 16 players to its 40-man roster, only one of whom (Sean Manaea) is guaranteed money in 2025.
Since Aug. 1, the Mets have made it clear the goal here in 2024 is not a division title — they’re still very much looking up at Atlanta and Philadelphia — but a roll of the postseason die. Because they know as well as anyone how that’s worked out for the last two No. 6 seeds in the National League. — Tim Britton
Photo:
Manager Carlos Mendoza, 1st season (Associated Press)
🎟️ Make postseason
27.9%
🏆 Win World Series
1.1%
Manager Carlos Mendoza, 1st season (Associated Press)
The Marlins suffered only one significant departure (Jorge Soler) following their Wild-Card Series exit last fall, but their modest offseason moves left much to be desired for fans of the economic underdog of the NL East. In Peter Bendix’s first winter as Marlins president of baseball operations, he settled for placing a small bet on a Tim Anderson bounceback and swapping out a few players. The approach felt overly optimistic at the time, and only appears more so now before Opening Day.
Already without Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara this season, the rotation will be further shorthanded to start the season, as Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are all currently on the shelf. Jesús Luzardo has broken out with the Marlins. A.J. Puk has moved into the rotation. But which other starters will be healthy enough to contribute? The Marlins have the game’s best contact hitter in Luis Arraez and some pop provided by Jake Burger, Josh Bell and Jazz Chisholm Jr. But it’s a lot to ask for this lineup to match the Braves and Phillies and emerge from the division. — Stephen J. Nesbitt
Photo:
Manager Skip Schumaker, 2nd season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
22.2%
🏆 Win World Series
0.8%
Manager Skip Schumaker, 2nd season (Getty Images)
The Angels were tied to basically every free agent this offseason. Mike Trout openly campaigned for ownership to pull the trigger. The team also lost a nine-WAR player in Shohei Ohtani, who walked to the Dodgers.
In terms of the actual roster, the only area that’s been improved is the bullpen. The Angels are banking on improvement from their core of young starting pitchers. They’re hoping the coaching staff changes the culture. And they’re praying for better health. This is what the Angels do every year. Hope hope hope, with almost no direction or spending behind it. Maybe one of these years it’ll work. But for now, it’s hard to see how the Angels will stack up in a division with three other teams that will be contending.
This team needs Anthony Rendon and Trout to stay on the field. They need Logan O’Hoppe and Zach Neto to develop into the stars they’ve shown signs of becoming. And they’ll need that starting rotation to simply be better. Possible, yes. But it’s a lot to ask. — Sam Blum
Photo:
Manager Ron Washington, 1st season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
15.1%
🏆 Win World Series
0.6%
Manager Ron Washington, 1st season (USA Today)
Perhaps no team in the league had a more obvious, glaring offseason need than the Guardians, whose lineup exhibited the horsepower of a faulty lawnmower in 2023. As the saying goes, if it’s broke, don’t fix it. The Guardians’ winter lineup additions: Austin Hedges, a guy who hasn’t cracked the Mendoza Line since 2018 and Estevan Florial, a guy on his last chance. That places a lot of pressure on a talented but fragile rotation and a bullpen that’s already leaking oil. Kyle Manzardo, Chase DeLauter and perhaps a middle infield prospect or two could bolster the offense this summer, but as things stand, this is a team with little to no margin for error. Instead of upgrading the roster to seize control of a weak division, the Guardians curiously remain stuck in neutral as they begin Year 1 of the Stephen Vogt era. — Zack Meisel
Photo:
Manager Stephen Vogt, 1st season (AP Photo)
🎟️ Make postseason
21.9%
🏆 Win World Series
0.8%
Manager Stephen Vogt, 1st season (AP Photo)
They lost 106 games last season. Their .389 win percentage the last six years is the worst in the majors by a considerable margin. And yet — admittedly during a time when everyone sports rose-colored glasses — perhaps the most common question to players and coaches this spring: How much better are the vibes?
The Royals signed a parade of veterans to fill holes, especially on the pitching staff. They reconfigured their scouting team in a bid to boost their farm system. Their coaching staff has flushed a forgettable first year. And the sorry AL Central can stoke even the wildest imaginations. Maybe it’s still too tall a task to expect a team to leap from 56-106 to division contention, but if things break KC’s way, with a couple offensive breakouts and a more reliable pitching staff, they could flirt with mediocrity. Given the team’s recent history, that has never sounded so appealing. — Zack Meisel
Photo:
Manager Matt Quatraro, 2nd season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
21.4%
🏆 Win World Series
0.8%
Manager Matt Quatraro, 2nd season (Getty Images)
The division is up for grabs, and the Tigers are pushing their chips into the middle in hopes a group of talented young hitters can defy odds and projections and end a decade-long playoff drought.
Spencer Torkelson (31 homers last season), Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Colt Keith could form the core of this lineup, with veteran addition Mark Canha adding some stability. All the young hitters are talented, but achieving consistent success in the major leagues is a taller task.
The Tigers lost Eduardo Rodriguez to free agency but still feel optimistic about their pitching. They added Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty this winter and are counting on Tarik Skubal to emerge as a Cy Young contender. Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Reese Olson provide more young talent in the rotation, while additions of Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller should strengthen a bullpen that performed well at the end of games last season. — Cody Stavenhagen
Photo:
Manager A.J. Hinch, 4th season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
19.7%
🏆 Win World Series
0.7%
Manager A.J. Hinch, 4th season (Getty Images)
The Brewers look different. But there’s a familiar feeling around them: they look like they can be a fun, competitive team and one that again surpasses expectations. The challenge will be incorporating a few young players into the lineup as key contributors at the same time. Bad teams can do this without much consequence.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, needs Jackson Chourio, Garrett Michell, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang and maybe Joey Ortiz to help. They don’t have to do all the heavy lifting — Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins, Willy Adames and William Contreras get paid for that. So there’s balance. But the range of outcomes with young players features wide variance.
On the pitching side, Freddy Peralta graduated to their No. 1, but the Brewers will rely on a mix of talented young pitchers — DL Hall first — and veterans who may be best working in piggyback roles. The bullpen appears strong, but they’ll be without stud closer Devin Williams for a while. They can win the central, but the same can be said about three of the four other teams in the division. — Will Sammon
Photo:
Manager Pat Murphy, 1st season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
19.9%
🏆 Win World Series
0.6%
Manager Pat Murphy, 1st season (Getty Images)
With the door cracked in a division lacking a dominant power, the Pirates seem to think they’re close to turning the corner and making a run. Fangraphs still projects Pittsburgh to finish fifth in the Central but has only a six-win spread between first place and last. The Pirates operated in wholly different fashion this offseason, signing eight major league free agents — all on one-year deals, as is their M.O. — and trading for two others.
Rowdy Tellez brings a big bat and Michael A. Taylor a Gold Glove to a low-average lineup that has power, speed and a healthy Oneil Cruz. Aroldis Chapman will strengthen the bullpen. The rotation remains the primary concern. For now, Mitch Keller, a 2023 All-Star who faded in the back half, is followed by veteran lefties Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales. Jared Jones and Paul Skenes could soon be rounding out the rotation. — Stephen J. Nesbitt
Photo:
Manager Derek Shelton, 5th season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
7.8%
🏆 Win World Series
0.2%
Manager Derek Shelton, 5th season (USA Today)
It’s too much to say that the Nationals are a team to watch, or that they have a chance to surprise, but there were enough encouraging developments last season to start taking them semi-seriously. CJ Abrams had a breakout season with his legs, and his youth gives him a chance to do the same with his bat. MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray hinted at a possible 1-2 future for the rotation and Keibert Ruiz looks like a cornerstone player. They’ll still be bad, of course. According to FanGraphs, their cleanup hitter is projected for a .744 OPS and 17 home runs; their No. 5 hitter is projected for a .191 batting average, which isn’t ideal.
It wouldn’t shock anyone if they had three or four starting pitchers with an ERA over 5.00. They’ll be watchable in that transitional-bad-team way, though, folding in new hopes for the future and trading away relievers at the deadline to get even more prospects. — Grant Brisbee
Photo:
Manager Dave Martinez, 7th season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
0.9%
🏆 Win World Series
0.0%
Manager Dave Martinez, 7th season (Getty Images)
‘Have team, will travel’ may be the slogan of the 2025 (insert your favorite city name) Athletics, but for 2024 at least, the A’s will still be in Oakland and still ostensibly be fielding a major-league team. Little attention has been paid to the actual players on the current roster with the relocation saga taking up most of the oxygen around the team, but the team has quietly improved from the group they opened with last year, which managed just 12 wins through May 31.
Rookie Zack Gelof looks poised to build off a strong MLB debut and the rotation has more stability with the additions of veterans Ross Stripling and Alex Wood pairing with the underrated J.P. Sears and Paul Blackburn. The bullpen didn’t come in with much veteran depth and what they had was lost to injuries in the spring, but hard-throwing rookie Mason Miller could emerge as a top closer if he can stay healthy. The A’s won’t challenge for the postseason, but they should be more regular bad than bad bad. At the very least, they should have more wins than stadium renderings. — Melissa Lockard
Photo:
Manager Mark Kotsay, 3rd season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
0.3%
🏆 Win World Series
0.0%
Manager Mark Kotsay, 3rd season (Getty Images)
Everyone in the NL West got better. Or, at least, took proactive steps to make themselves competitive in what is arguably the best division in baseball. That is, every team except the Colorado Rockies. They signed catcher Jacob Stallings, pitcher Dakota Hudson, and traded for a starter in Cal Quantrill. Not bad moves, but probably nothing that will move the needle for a team that lost 103 games last season.
If there’s going to be improvement, it will have to come from the development of their young core. Outfielder Nolan Jones, who came in fourth in Rookie of the Year voting, is a good place to start. Infielder Brendan Rodgers, a former No. 3 overall pick, is looking to rebound off a mostly lost season. The Rockies will lean into playing their young prospects, which could give infielder Adael Amador a chance at the big league roster. As is often the case in Colorado, pitching will be a concern. They were the worst in baseball with a 5.67 ERA in 2023. And, lastly, there’s Kris Bryant. The former NL MVP has barely played and has struggled at times when healthy.
No one player will make the Rockies competitive. But a collection of improved performances could at least provide a framework for a franchise that appears to lack one.— Sam Blum
Photo:
Manager Bud Black, 8th season (Getty Images)
🎟️ Make postseason
0.1%
🏆 Win World Series
0.0%
Manager Bud Black, 8th season (Getty Images)
The White Sox bottomed out last summer with a firesale, a few front-office firings and 101 losses — their most since 1970. GM Chris Getz is now tasked with leading a rebuild that began at last year’s trade deadline, a month before he was hired.
He traded ace Dylan Cease to San Diego this month for three prospects and reliever Steven Wilson. Chicago’s cupboard of prospects has been replenished, but few coveted players remain at the major league level. Getz has so far held on to Luis Robert Jr., who is under club control through 2027.
The White Sox are not playing for 2024 but will, in fact, be asked to play in 2024. The Central is forever winnable, but with the Twins on top, the Guardians standing pat and the Tigers and Royals adding aggressively this offseason, Chicago is only falling farther behind.— Stephen J. Nesbitt
Photo:
Manager Pedro Grifol, 2nd season (USA Today)
🎟️ Make postseason
0.3%
🏆 Win World Series
0.0%
Manager Pedro Grifol, 2nd season (USA Today)
(Top illustration of Juan Soto, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Shohei Ohtani: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos by Tim Nwachukwu, Chris Bernacchi, Matthew Grimes Jr./Getty, Diamond Images, Atlanta Braves)
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